Curiosities

A Pneumonic Plague Outbreak in Russia by October Is Unlikely

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Confirmed pneumonic plague case in Russia by...?”

unlikely (18%)
Leading outcome October 31, 2026 18% Unlikely · D probably not → unlikely
24h move ▼ 16.5 pts October 31, 2026
Traded 24h $15K $20K all time
Resolves by 2026-11-01

Where the money stands

October 31, 2026 18% ▼ 16.5
October 15, 2026 14% ▼ 12.5
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

More from Curiosities

Curiosities

OpenAI Announcing a Second Millennium Prize Solution by 2027 Is Now a Coin Flip

a coin flip (54%)

What had been leaning yes is now a coin flip — and having collapsed from 93% just three weeks ago, this market is far too volatile to read as settled either way; the money is genuinely uncertain whether the first result was a repeatable capability or a one-off.

Updated 12:47 AM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $57K venue Polymarket grade D tracked 26 days range 93% (24d ago) – 50% (0d ago) trending in today's news a coin flip → leaning yes 5 tier changes
Curiosities a real race

AI Solves a Millennium Prize Problem by 2027, the Odds Now Favor

No solution by Dec 31, 2027: probably not (36%)

What had been a coin flip on whether AI solves nothing is now probably not — meaning the money increasingly expects at least one solution, with Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer and the Hodge Conjecture splitting the field. That this market exists at all reflects a collective sense that mathematics' hardest open problems have quietly entered AI's near-term scope.

Updated 5:12 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $16K venue Polymarket grade D tracked 26 days range 74% (17d ago) – 28% (25d ago) a coin flip → probably not 2 tier changes
Curiosities

The U.S. Is Very Unlikely to Confirm Alien Life Before 2027

very unlikely (3%)

Whatever is driving public curiosity about disclosure right now, the money is deeply unmoved — nearly $71 million staked here says official confirmation before 2027 is a near-certainty not to happen, treating the whole conversation as noise rather than signal.

Updated 3:52 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $31K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 68 days