World

Suez Canal Traffic Is Surging Back Toward Full Capacity This Week

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “Traffic through the Suez Canal? (11/9 - 11/15)”

virtually certain (98%)
Leading outcome Above 260 98% Virtually certain · C probably not → virtually certain
24h move 0.0 pts Above 260
Traded 24h $65K $76K all time
Resolves by 2026-11-17 in 4 days

Where the money stands

Above 260 98% 0.0
Above 270 97% ▲ 10.0
Above 280 95% ▲ 12.0
Above 290 91% ▲ 7.0
Above 300 83% ▲ 22.0
Above 310 71% ▲ 54.0
The Money Talks — The Diplomatic Window Is Still Open — But It's Narrowing Fast
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

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A Ukraine Ceasefire Leans Toward 2027, but No Deal Is Close

a coin flip (54%)

The money has abandoned hope for a near-term energy truce — that contract fell sharply — while the broader 2027 ceasefire window edges into coin-flip-plus territory. A direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting before 2027 is virtually certain not to happen, meaning any agreement must be brokered at distance, with Putin's grip in Moscow essentially unchallenged.

Updated 2:34 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $546K markets read 8 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 103 days range 54% (8d ago) – 10% (25d ago) 7 tier changes venues disagree 51.8pp
World

The Israel-Iran Ceasefire Is Holding Now, but Fraying Fast Beyond Mid-November

virtually certain (100%)

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is moving at near-normal levels this week, yet a permanent normalization by year-end is a near-certain non-event, and the next senior diplomatic meeting looks increasingly unlikely before December 31. The ceasefire is a pause, not a settlement — the diplomatic machinery has stalled and no nuclear deal is in sight.

Updated 2:34 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $759K markets read 18 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 107 days range 100% (8d ago) – 79% (43d ago) 21 tier changes
World Alberto Núñez Feijóo on track to win

Feijóo Likely Becomes Spain's Next Prime Minister, but His Lead Is Narrowing

Alberto Núñez Feijóo: likely (82%)

What had been very likely is now merely likely — and in a market that has crossed conviction rungs eight times, that slippage matters. Sánchez's recovery to 14% signals the race is not fully closed; a bloc majority remains the dominant scenario, but the gap has tightened enough to keep it from looking inevitable.

Updated 7:53 AM ET ▼ down sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $295K markets read 2 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 106 days range 92% (2d ago) – 74% (36d ago) 8 tier changes