World

Hormuz Disruption Likely Persists Through November

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?”

very unlikely (10%)
Leading outcome Yes 10% Very unlikely · Stable · B · tracked 55 days peak 30% (54d ago) · low 10% (1d ago) 8 tier changes over tracking period venues disagree 82.3pp
24h move ▲ 0.5 pts Yes
Traded 24h $22K $605K all time
Resolves by 2026-12-01
Source markets 19 19 markets · mixed

Source markets for this story

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Polymarket · March 31 72% · +1.0 24h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 14% · -1.0 24h
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · October 5 100% · +1.1 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Polymarket · Yes 18% · -1.0 24h
Will Iran target Iraq by...? Polymarket · September 30 100%
Iran leadership change by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 22%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 6% · -1.0 24h
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? Polymarket · Yes 8% · +3.5 24h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Polymarket · December 31 6% · -1.0 24h
Iran leader end of 2026? Polymarket · Mojtaba Khamenei 88% · +0.9 24h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Polymarket · December 31 12%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Kalshi · Before Jan 1, 2029 70%
Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (10/5 - 10/11) Kalshi · October 5 27% · +10.0 24h
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...? Polymarket · December 31 33% · +2.5 24h
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 28? Polymarket · 25-29 70% · +27.5 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? Polymarket · Yes 10% · +0.5 24h
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? Polymarket · October 31 21% · +7.5 24h
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? Polymarket · Steve Witkoff 50%
Will Iran target an Arab country by...? Polymarket · September 30 100%
The Money Talks — The US-Iran Diplomatic Calendar Probably Has Room for One More Meeting
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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