The Strait of Hormuz Will See a Zero-Ship Day Before November
Source: Polymarket market “0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?”
very likely (97%)
Leading outcome
October 31 97%
Very likely · Falling · B · tracked 64 days
peak 98% · low 5% (62d ago)
probably not → very likely
5 tier changes over tracking period
venues disagree 82.8pp
24h move
▲
62.4 pts
October 31
Traded 24h
$26K
$924K all time
Resolves by
2026-11-01
Source markets
23
23 markets · mixed
Source markets for this story
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
Polymarket · March 31 72% · +1.5 24h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket · Yes 16%
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Polymarket · October 5 100%
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?
Polymarket · Yes 8% · +4.0 24h
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Polymarket · October 9 96%
Iran leadership change by...?
Polymarket · June 30, 2027 22%
Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)
Polymarket · December 31 20% · +1.0 24h
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Kalshi · Before Jan 1, 2029 72% · +2.0 24h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Polymarket · December 31 6% · -1.0 24h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Polymarket · Yes 6%
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11)
Kalshi · Above 10 96% · -1.0 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Polymarket · Yes 18%
Crude Oil all time high by...?
Polymarket · December 31 10%
Iran leader end of 2026?
Polymarket · Mojtaba Khamenei 88%
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?
Polymarket · December 31, 2026 48% · +2.0 24h
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Polymarket · Jared Kushner 46% · -1.5 24h
Will Iran target Iraq by...?
Polymarket · September 30 100%
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?
Polymarket · October 31 97% · +62.4 24h
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 28?
Polymarket · <20 97% · +91.9 24h
Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
Polymarket · September 21 91%
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
Polymarket · December 31 49%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
Polymarket · December 31 12%
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
Polymarket · December 31 41% · +9.0 24h
The Money Talks —
The US-Iran Diplomatic Calendar Probably Has Room for One More Meeting
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