World

A US-Iran Diplomatic Meeting This Year Is Likely, but the Window Is Narrowing

By Priced In News Staff

likely (78%)

Leading outcome December 31, 2026 78% Likely · A virtually certain → likely

24h move ▼ 8.0 pts December 31, 2026

Traded 24h $20K $26K all time

Resolves by 2026-12-31

Where the money stands

December 31, 2026 78% ▼ 8.0

October 31, 2026 62% ▼ 12.5

September 30, 2026 46% ▼ 19.5

September 24, 2026 14% ▼ 18.5

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Polymarket · December 31 6%

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Polymarket · December 31 58% · -4.2 24h

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 14% · -1.0 24h

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · September 25 98% · +1.1 24h

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Polymarket · Yes 22% · -2.0 24h

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? Polymarket · Yes 1%

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Kalshi · Before Jan 1, 2029 70% · -5.0 24h

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Polymarket · December 31 12% · -3.0 24h

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · September 30 96%

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/21 - 9/27) Kalshi · Above 10 96% · -1.0 24h

Iran leadership change by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 26% · +0.5 24h

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? Polymarket · Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani 70% · -0.5 24h

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...? Polymarket · December 31, 2026 78% · -8.0 24h

Iran charges Hormuz fees by...? Polymarket · December 31 28% · +2.0 24h

Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? Polymarket · Yes 0%

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Polymarket · 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium 18% · +3.0 24h

Iran full airspace closure by...? Polymarket · December 31 24% · -0.5 24h

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? Polymarket · October 31 34% · -0.5 24h