World

SpaceX Will Almost Certainly Launch More Than Six Times in October

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “How many launches will SpaceX have in October?”

virtually certain (99%)
Resolved The money put Above 6 at 99% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome Above 6 99% Virtually certain · C likely → virtually certain
24h move 0.0 pts Above 6
Traded 24h $44K $274K all time
Resolves by 2026-11-01

Where the money stands

Above 6 99% 0.0
Above 7 99% 0.0
Above 8 97% ▼ 1.0
Above 9 95% ▼ 2.0
Above 10 87% ▲ 17.0
Above 11 17% ▼ 3.0
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

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World

The US-Iran Ceasefire Holds, but the Hormuz Wound Stays Open

very likely (92%)

A durable ceasefire is very likely to last through late October, yet the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed — with normal traffic looking unlikely by year-end and a formal Hormuz agreement increasingly off the table, the truce is buying time, not resolution.

Updated 2:50 PM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $1.7M markets read 22 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 32 days range 100% (11d ago) – 87% (29d ago) 16 tier changes
World

A Major French City Is Under Curfew

virtually certain (100%)

What had been unlikely is now virtually certain — the curfew signals a domestic security breakdown serious enough to trigger emergency measures, a threshold French authorities have historically been reluctant to cross.

Updated 2:50 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $212K venue Polymarket grade C unlikely → virtually certain
World

France Is Not Headed for Martial Law

very unlikely (4%)

The curfew scare has passed — a Paris curfew contract collapsed 42 points in a day, and even the broadest emergency measure sits at just 16%. France faces instability, but the money draws a clear line between civil unrest and a constitutional breakdown.

Updated 10:32 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $84K markets read 5 venue Polymarket grade A probably not → very unlikely