Brazil's Presidential First Round Is Headed for a Razor-Thin Margin
Source: Polymarket market “Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory”
Lula da Silva <5%: a coin flip (52%)
Leading outcome
Lula da Silva <5% 52%
A coin flip · Stable · B · tracked 25 days
peak 54% (4d ago) · low 32% (11d ago)
5 tier changes over tracking period
venues disagree 3.5pp
24h move
▲
0.5 pts
Lula da Silva <5%
Traded 24h
$26K
$549K all time
Resolves by
2026-10-04
Source markets
6
6 markets · mixed
Where the money stands
Lula da Silva <5%
52%
▲
0.5
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
30%
▲
1.6
Lula da Silva 5-10%
12%
0.0
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
8%
0.2
Lula da Silva 10-15%
2%
▼
1.1
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
0%
▼
0.7
Source markets for this story
Brazil Presidential Election
Polymarket · Flávio Bolsonaro 60% · +1.4 24h
Brazil Presidential election winner?
Kalshi · Flávio Bolsonaro 60% · -1.0 24h
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Polymarket · Flávio Bolsonaro 70% · -1.0 24h
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
Polymarket · Renan Santos 46% · -7.0 24h
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Polymarket · Lula da Silva <5% 52% · +0.5 24h
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Renan Santos Vote Share?
Polymarket · 2-4% 39% · -2.5 24h
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