World

The Houthis Are Unlikely to Successfully Target Shipping Before December

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Houthis successfully target shipping by...?”

probably not (28%)
Leading outcome November 30 28% Probably not · Stable · B · tracked 54 days peak 54% (50d ago) · low 24% (1d ago) unlikely → probably not 2 tier changes over tracking period
24h move ▲ 4.0 pts November 30
Traded 24h $23K $161K all time
Resolves by 2026-12-01
Source markets 3 2/3 markets agree

Source markets for this story

Houthis seize an oil tanker by...? Polymarket · November 30 4%
Houthis successfully target shipping by...? Polymarket · November 30 28% · +4.0 24h
Houthis capture Taiz by...? (castle) Polymarket · December 31 18%
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

More from World

World

A Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire by End of 2027 Is Now a Coin Flip

a coin flip (48%)

What had been probably not is now genuinely open — but the gap between a ceasefire and a signed peace deal remains wide, with peace deal odds sitting at just 38%, suggesting traders see a possible freeze rather than a resolution. This market has swung across conviction rungs seven times; treat the current reading as a signal of genuine uncertainty, not a settled forecast.

Updated 7:03 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $285K markets read 8 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 102 days range 54% (7d ago) – 10% (24d ago) probably not → a coin flip 7 tier changes venues disagree 4.5pp
World odds favor Labour

Labour Edges Ahead in New Zealand, but the Race Has Narrowed Sharply

Labour: leaning yes (56%)

What had been a very likely Labour win is now a lean — National's near-certain grip on the most seats means the governing arithmetic is genuinely contested, and a Labour-led coalition is no longer the default assumption it was days ago.

Updated 9:06 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $1.6M markets read 2 venue Kalshi grade A tracked 5 days range 96% (3d ago) – 60% (0d ago) very likely → leaning yes
World leaning Marine Le Pen

Marine Le Pen Leads a Fractured French Presidential Race

Marine Le Pen: a coin flip (46%)

Her plurality is real but not commanding — the field behind her is split across five credible alternatives, and her own odds have drifted from a peak set twenty days ago, leaving 2027 genuinely open rather than hers to lose.

Updated 2:06 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $813K markets read 3 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 106 days range 48% (24d ago) – 29% (105d ago) probably not → a coin flip 5 tier changes venues disagree 80.0pp