World

Turkey Will Not Hold Early Presidential Elections in 2026

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?”

virtually impossible (1%)
Leading outcome Yes 1% Virtually impossible · C very unlikely → virtually impossible
24h move ▼ 4.2 pts Yes
Traded 24h $23K $206K all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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World one clear front-runner

Marine Le Pen Leads a Volatile French Presidential Race

Marine Le Pen: probably not (42%)

Her position is stronger than it was three months ago but well off last week's peak, and the field behind her — Philippe, Lisnard, and Mélenchon splitting the remaining vote nearly evenly — means a runoff outcome remains genuinely unpredictable.

Updated 11:24 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $1.3M venue Polymarket grade B tracked 95 days range 48% (13d ago) – 29% (94d ago) 4 tier changes
World

A Hormuz Deal This Year Is Possible but Far From Settled

probably not (36%)

Ceasefires on both the US-Iran and Israel-Iran fronts are holding with near-certainty, and Hormuz traffic is already flowing — but a formal agreement remains a long shot for now, suggesting the current calm rests on a fragile, uncodified truce rather than durable diplomacy.

Updated 5:07 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $96K markets read 17 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 90 days range 68% (87d ago) – 2% (52d ago) 15 tier changes venues disagree 20.0pp
World

A Zelenskyy-Putin Call Before Year-End Remains Unlikely

unlikely (20%)

Talks between the two leaders look unlikely through December, even as broader peace-talk odds sit at 78% — the money draws a clear line between process-level diplomacy and any direct exchange at the top, which both leaders appear unwilling to risk.

Updated 6:09 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $21K markets read 4 venue Polymarket grade C tracked 64 days range 23% (6d ago) – 8% (62d ago) very unlikely → unlikely