World

Zelenskyy and Putin Will Very Likely Not Speak This Year

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by...?”

very unlikely (8%)
Leading outcome December 31 8% Very unlikely · Stable · D · tracked 14 days
24h move ▼ 1.0 pts December 31
Traded 24h $17K $955K all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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World

A Hormuz Ceasefire Is Likely Coming, But Normal Shipping Remains Far Off

unlikely (22%)

The standoff is moving toward a political settlement — a ceasefire by September 30 is priced at 91% and an Oman-brokered agreement is the favored path — but restored transit traffic is a separate, slower problem, with Hormuz normalization by year-end below 20% and full recovery not expected before 2029.

Updated 4:30 PM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $609K markets read 18 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 45 days range 26% (0d ago) – 14% (37d ago) probably not → unlikely
World

Israel and Lebanon Are Likely to Meet Diplomatically by September 30

likely (85%)

The window has narrowed — a mid-September meeting has collapsed in probability — but the end-of-month deadline still holds, suggesting talks are moving but not on anyone's preferred timetable. This market's eight conviction-tier crossings warn against treating the current reading as settled.

Updated 4:27 PM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $97K markets read 4 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 31 days range 95% (1d ago) – 64% (4d ago) 8 tier changes
World odds favor Magdalena Andersson

Andersson Still Leads Sweden's PM Race, but Her Grip Is Slipping

Magdalena Andersson: leaning yes (72%)

What had been a likely outcome is now merely leaning her way — Kristersson has doubled his implied probability in 24 hours, and with the Social Democrats still near-certain to win the most seats, the real question is whether a coalition can be assembled around someone other than Andersson.

Updated 4:24 PM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $415K markets read 3 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 44 days range 93% (19d ago) – 74% (0d ago) resolves in 1 day 3 tier changes