U.S.odds favor João Campos

João Campos Now Edges Ahead in the Pernambuco Governor Race

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Pernambuco Governor Election Winner”

João Campos: leaning yes (56%)
Leading outcome João Campos 56% Leaning yes · B a coin flip → leaning yes venues disagree 39.4pp
24h move ▲ 2.0 pts João Campos
Traded 24h $21K $96K all time
Resolves by 2026-10-05 in 3 days
Source markets 12 12 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

João Campos 56% ▲ 2.0
Raquel Lyra 46% ▲ 1.0
Ivan Moraes 0% ▼ 0.7

Source markets for this story

Brazil Presidential Election Polymarket · Flávio Bolsonaro 58% · -3.8 24h
Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner Polymarket · Lula 76% · +4.0 24h
Brazil Presidential election winner? Kalshi · Flávio Bolsonaro 58% · -3.0 24h
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place Polymarket · Flávio Bolsonaro 76% · +5.0 24h
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place Polymarket · Renan Santos 62% · +14.0 24h
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff? Polymarket · Flavio Bolsonaro 99% · +0.7 24h
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Renan Santos Vote Share? Polymarket · 2-4% 53% · +9.0 24h
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory Polymarket · Lula da Silva <5% 64% · +7.0 24h
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? Polymarket · Yes 5% · +1.6 24h
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Flávio Bolsonaro Vote Share? Polymarket · 39%+ 88% · -2.0 24h
Pernambuco Governor Election Winner Polymarket · João Campos 56% · +2.0 24h
Flávio Bolsonaro participates in debate before first round? Polymarket · Yes 6% · -93.3 24h
The Money Talks — Flávio Bolsonaro Probably Wins in 2026 — and the Race Just Shifted Beneath Lula's Feet
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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U.S.

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probably not (36%)

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Updated 2:28 AM ET ▲ drifting up for days
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Democratic Party: very likely (92%)

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Updated 8:51 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $345K markets read 6 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 65 days range 92% (0d ago) – 86% (59d ago) trending in today's news 5 tier changes venues disagree 29.1pp
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J.D. Vance: a coin flip (53%)

His grip on the nomination is real but fragile — a 53% plurality with Rubio at 17% and a general-election market pricing him at just 25% suggests the party sees him as the default heir, not a commanding frontrunner.

Updated 12:34 AM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $3.2M markets read 6 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 65 days range 53% (29d ago) – 43% (62d ago) 3 tier changes venues disagree 31.3pp