World

An Eritrean Invasion of Ethiopia This Year Is Unlikely

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Eritrea invades Ethiopia by...?”

unlikely (22%)
Resolved The money put December 31 at 22% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome December 31 22% Unlikely · C
24h move ▲ 4.5 pts December 31
Traded 24h $41K $41K all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01

Where the money stands

December 31 22% ▲ 4.5
October 31 16% ▲ 5.5
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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Russia Is Very Likely to Enter Mykolaivka Before Year-End

very likely (93%)

The timeline for a September capture has collapsed, but the money still prices a year-end entry as near-certain — meaning the front is moving, just more slowly than the most aggressive bettors had hoped. A ceasefire before 2027 remains a long shot at 12%, making this a grinding advance with no diplomatic off-ramp in sight.

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Iran's Hormuz Fee Threat Is Unlikely to Materialize This Year

probably not (27%)

The blockade itself looks permanent through at least year-end while traffic normalization remains nearly impossible, but a formal fee regime on top of that remains a long shot — suggesting Iran is squeezing through disruption alone, without yet weaponizing the tollbooth.

Updated 1:27 AM ET ▲ up overnight
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Eizenkot Leads a Volatile Israeli Prime Minister Race With Netanyahu Closing In

Gadi Eizenkot: a coin flip (48%)

Eizenkot's lead has eroded from a peak of 58% a month ago and Netanyahu's exit odds just jumped sharply, suggesting the race is being reshuffled in real time — while coverage focuses on current events, the money says Israel's political future is genuinely unsettled.

Updated 7:45 PM ET ▼ down overnight
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traded today $1.1M markets read 5 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 63 days range 58% (37d ago) – 47% (25d ago) trending in today's news 6 tier changes