World

Bab el-Mandeb Shipping Traffic Is Likely to Hit 25 or More Daily Transits by October

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?”

25+ daily transits: very likely (90%)
Leading outcome 25+ daily transits 90% Very likely · Rising · A · tracked 20 days peak 71% (6d ago) · low 42% (18d ago) likely → very likely 2 tier changes over tracking period
24h move ▲ 2.5 pts 25+ daily transits
Traded 24h $25K $114K all time
Resolves by 2026-11-01 in 3 days
Source markets 21 21 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

25-29 66% ▼ 8.5
30-34 24% ▲ 11.0
20-24 4% ▼ 6.2
<20 2% 0.1
35+ 0% 0.0

Source markets for this story

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · October 28 100% · +1.1 24h
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Polymarket · March 31 62% · +2.5 24h
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · October 27 100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? Polymarket · Yes 0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 18% · -1.0 24h
Iran leadership change by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 28% · +2.5 24h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 4% · -2.0 24h
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...? Polymarket · December 31 39% · +7.0 24h
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? Polymarket · Yes 94% · +3.0 24h
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/26 - 11/1) Kalshi · Above 15 96% · -2.0 24h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Polymarket · December 31 14% · +2.0 24h
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Kalshi · Before Jan 1, 2029 57% · -2.0 24h
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? Polymarket · Abbas Araghchi 44% · +8.5 24h
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...? Polymarket · December 31, 2026 44% · +5.5 24h
Iran leader end of 2026? Polymarket · Mojtaba Khamenei 86%
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? Polymarket · December 31 30% · +3.5 24h
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms? Polymarket · No Hormuz Agreement 94% · +0.8 24h
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Polymarket · Dilution of Iran's Uranium 12% · +0.5 24h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? Polymarket · December 31 12% · -2.0 24h
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October? Polymarket · 25+ daily transits 90% · +2.5 24h
Iran full airspace closure by...? Polymarket · December 31 33% · -6.0 24h
The Money Talks — Talks Will Probably Happen — But the Window Is Narrowing Fast
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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