Curiosities

A U.S. Strike on Colombia by Year-End Is Now a Coin Flip

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “US strike on Colombia by...?”

probably not (44%)
Leading outcome December 31 44% Probably not · D unlikely → probably not
24h move ▲ 29.5 pts December 31
Traded 24h $14K $2.2M all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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OpenAI Is Increasingly Expected to Crack Another Millennium Prize by 2027

leaning yes (67%)

The fact that real money is pricing a second unsolved-mathematics breakthrough at better than two-to-one odds within two years reveals how thoroughly the prior solution rewrote assumptions about AI capability — the market is not betting on a company, it is betting that a threshold has already been crossed.

Updated 4:50 PM ET ▲ up overnight
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traded today $57K markets read 3 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 28 days range 93% (26d ago) – 50% (2d ago) 6 tier changes
Curiosities

The U.S. Is Very Unlikely to Confirm Alien Life Before 2027

very unlikely (3%)

Whatever is driving public curiosity about disclosure right now, the money is deeply unmoved — nearly $71 million staked here says official confirmation before 2027 is a near-certainty not to happen, treating the whole conversation as noise rather than signal.

Updated 3:52 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $31K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 70 days
Curiosities

A Plague Pandemic in 2026 Remains a Remote Possibility

very unlikely (5%)

The fact that real money is being staked on bubonic plague as a 2026 pandemic risk reveals more about ambient biosecurity anxiety than about any credible outbreak signal — the 5% price is consistent with a tail risk, not a live threat.

Updated 4:37 AM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $19K venue Polymarket grade C