World

China's Ballistic Missile Launch Is Very Likely Before Year-End

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “China ballistic missile launch by December 31?”

very likely (95%)
Leading outcome Yes 95% Very likely · C very unlikely → very likely
24h move ▲ 88.4 pts Yes
Traded 24h $35K $53K all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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A US-Iran Ceasefire Is Likely by Year-End, but the Hard Part Comes After

likely (80%)

What had been very likely is now merely likely — and the related markets explain why: a nuclear deal and a Hormuz normalization are both priced below 10%, meaning any pause in hostilities is expected to be a fragile truce, not a durable settlement. The Strait stays disrupted and diplomacy stays shallow.

Updated 2:03 AM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $387K markets read 14 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 6 days range 87% (5d ago) – 80% (0d ago) very likely → likely
World

A Ukraine Ceasefire Leans Toward 2027, but No Deal Is Close

a coin flip (54%)

The money has abandoned hope for a near-term energy truce — that contract fell sharply — while the broader 2027 ceasefire window edges into coin-flip-plus territory. A direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting before 2027 is virtually certain not to happen, meaning any agreement must be brokered at distance, with Putin's grip in Moscow essentially unchallenged.

Updated 2:34 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $546K markets read 7 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 103 days range 54% (8d ago) – 10% (25d ago) trending in today's news 7 tier changes venues disagree 51.8pp
World leaning Marine Le Pen

Marine Le Pen Leads a Fractured French Presidential Race

Marine Le Pen: a coin flip (46%)

Her plurality is real but not commanding — the field behind her is split across five credible alternatives, and her own odds have drifted from a peak set twenty days ago, leaving 2027 genuinely open rather than hers to lose.

Updated 2:06 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $813K markets read 3 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 107 days range 48% (25d ago) – 29% (106d ago) 5 tier changes venues disagree 80.0pp