World

Israel Is Very Unlikely to Withdraw From Lebanon Before Year-End

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?”

very unlikely (5%)
Leading outcome December 31 5% Very unlikely · Falling · B · tracked 64 days peak 12% (56d ago) · low 5% 5 tier changes over tracking period
24h move ▲ 0.6 pts December 31
Traded 24h $24K $8.5M all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01
Source markets 3 3 markets · mixed

Source markets for this story

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? Polymarket · Gadi Eizenkot 47%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...? Polymarket · December 31 5% · +0.6 24h
Israeli Legislative Election Winner Polymarket · Yashar 58%
The Money Talks — Israel's Airspace Is Very Likely Closing by September 30
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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Russia Is Virtually Certain to Enter Mykolaivka Before Year-End

virtually certain (99%)

What was uncertain three days ago is now a near-foregone conclusion — the offensive has enough momentum that traders see Mykolaivka's fall as a matter of timing, not outcome. Peace talks remain a live possibility by end of 2027, but a Putin-Zelenskyy meeting looks unlikely, and a NATO military clash stays a tail risk at roughly one-in-four.

Updated 9:53 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
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Flávio Bolsonaro: leaning yes (63%)

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Updated 1:58 AM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $1.0M markets read 14 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 64 days range 66% (60d ago) – 50% (18d ago) resolves in 4 days 2 tier changes venues disagree 38.9pp
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Iran Is Unlikely to Charge Hormuz Transit Fees This Year

unlikely (24%)

Ceasefires with both the U.S. and Israel are holding comfortably above 80%, and Hormuz traffic is near-certain to stay open in the near term — yet a blockade resolution is only likely by March 2027, meaning the standoff remains frozen rather than resolved, with Iran's leverage intact but unexercised.

Updated 5:13 AM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $107K markets read 19 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 62 days range 65% (58d ago) – 21% (2d ago) probably not → unlikely 16 tier changes