World

Brazil's Presidential Election Will Not Be Annulled This Year

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Brazil presidential election annulled by December 31?”

very unlikely (5%)
Leading outcome Yes 5% Very unlikely · D
24h move ▲ 1.4 pts Yes
Traded 24h $19K $27K all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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World leaning Benjamin Netanyahu

Netanyahu Leads a Fractured Israeli Race — but Nobody May Govern

Benjamin Netanyahu: a coin flip (50%)

Likud is virtually certain to win the most seats, and Netanyahu is very likely to receive the first mandate — yet a coalition majority is nearly off the table at 3%, meaning Israel is likely headed for a hung parliament where the largest party cannot rule. What had been a likely Netanyahu return is now a coin flip, and the race has crossed conviction tiers ten times; the real story is institutional paralysis, not a single leader's fate.

Updated 3:40 AM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $16.0M markets read 29 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 91 days range 58% (65d ago) – 42% (17d ago) resolves today trending in today's news likely → a coin flip 10 tier changes venues disagree 31.5pp
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Le Pen's Presidential Bid Is Now a Coin Flip

Marine Le Pen: a coin flip (47%)

What had been probably not is now a genuine dead heat — but a market that has swung this sharply twice before should not be read as settled; her 89% chance of reaching the second round means the real question is who faces her there, in a fractured field where Philippe, Lisnard, and Mélenchon together hold as much weight as she does.

Updated 1:13 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $733K markets read 5 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 91 days range 48% (9d ago) – 29% (90d ago) trending in today's news 4 tier changes venues disagree 6.5pp
World wide open

San Antonio Spurs Lead the 2027 NBA Finals Race as Oklahoma City Thunder Fades

San Antonio Spurs: unlikely (22%)

A ceasefire looks increasingly probable before the end of 2027 — the related markets show peace talks are expected and a direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting remains off the table, suggesting a deal brokered through intermediaries is the most likely path.

Updated 9:39 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $847K markets read 9 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 91 days probably not → unlikely