World

Hormuz Stays Open This Week, but Full Recovery Remains Distant

By Priced In News Staff

virtually certain (98%)

Leading outcome Above 15 98% Virtually certain · A

24h move ▲ 1.0 pts Above 15

Traded 24h $83K $129K all time

Resolves by 2026-11-03 in 6 days

Where the money stands

Above 15 98% ▲ 1.0

Above 20 82% ▲ 2.0

Above 23 65% ▲ 3.0

Above 25 38% ▼ 27.0

Above 27 33% ▲ 4.0

Above 30 12% ▼ 17.0

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · October 28 99% · +1.9 24h

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · October 27 100% · +0.5 24h

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Polymarket · March 31 60% · +0.5 24h

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 6% · -1.0 24h

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? Polymarket · Yes 90%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? Polymarket · Yes 0%

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/26 - 11/1) Kalshi · Above 15 98% · +1.0 24h

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...? Polymarket · December 31 32%

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 20% · +2.0 24h

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Polymarket · December 31 10% · -2.0 24h

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Polymarket · Yes 12%

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? Polymarket · December 31 30% · +4.0 24h

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? Polymarket · December 31 14%

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Polymarket · December 31 10% · +1.0 24h