World

Lee Jae-myung Will Not Be Arrested Before 2027

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?”

virtually impossible (2%)
Leading outcome Yes 2% Virtually impossible · C very unlikely → virtually impossible
24h move ▼ 3.6 pts Yes
Traded 24h $38K $605K all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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World odds favor Gadi Eizenkot

Eizenkot Leads Israel's Next Election but the Race Remains Unsettled

Gadi Eizenkot: leaning yes (62%)

A fragmented picture emerges: Eizenkot's bloc (Yashar) is favored to win the most seats, yet a coalition majority looks nearly impossible at just 16%, leaving Israel likely headed for another round of difficult government-formation. The lead is real but fragile — this market has swung sharply nine times, and a hung parliament remains a live outcome.

Updated 11:20 AM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $5.2M markets read 11 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 90 days range 58% (64d ago) – 42% (16d ago) resolves in 1 day trending in today's news 9 tier changes venues disagree 17.2pp
World

The US-Iran Ceasefire Is Virtually Certain to Hold Through Late October

virtually certain (100%)

What had been very likely is now virtually certain through October, and confidence is building further out — the ceasefire through the midterms is priced at 88%. The durability of this pause is becoming the baseline assumption, though a market this volatile has defied confidence before.

Updated 11:20 AM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $575K markets read 17 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 40 days range 100% (19d ago) – 87% (37d ago) resolves in 4 days very likely → virtually certain 19 tier changes
World leaning Marine Le Pen

Le Pen's Presidential Bid Is Now a Coin Flip

Marine Le Pen: a coin flip (47%)

What had been probably not is now a genuine dead heat — but a market that has swung this sharply twice before should not be read as settled; her 89% chance of reaching the second round means the real question is who faces her there, in a fractured field where Philippe, Lisnard, and Mélenchon together hold as much weight as she does.

Updated 1:13 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $733K markets read 3 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 90 days range 48% (8d ago) – 29% (89d ago) trending in today's news probably not → a coin flip 4 tier changes venues disagree 6.5pp