World

The US-Iran Ceasefire Is Very Likely to Hold Through Late September

By Priced In News Staff

very likely (94%)

Leading outcome September 20 94% Very likely · A a coin flip → very likely

24h move ▲ 2.5 pts September 20

Traded 24h $172K $174K all time

Resolves by 2026-10-31

Where the money stands

September 20 94% ▲ 2.5

September 25 86% ▲ 43.5

September 30 70% ▲ 0.5

October 31 44% 0.0

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 16%

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Polymarket · December 31 60%

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? Polymarket · December 31 18% · -2.0 24h

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · September 20 94% · +2.5 24h

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...? Polymarket · March 31, 2027 63% · +2.5 24h

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Kalshi · Before Jul 1, 2028 68%

Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by...? Polymarket · October 31 82% · -4.5 24h

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...? Polymarket · No Meeting by September 30 86% · -3.2 24h

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? Polymarket · December 31 6% · -1.0 24h

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · September 30 94% · +3.5 24h

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 6%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? Polymarket · Yes 1%

Who will Trump meet with in 2026? Polymarket · Delcy Rodríguez 84% · +21.0 24h

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? Polymarket · China 60% · +5.0 24h

Iran leadership change by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 26%

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? Polymarket · Steve Witkoff 36%