The US-Iran Ceasefire Is Fraying — and a Hormuz Deal Remains Elusive
Source: Polymarket market “US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?”
likely (76%)
Leading outcome
October 31 76%
Likely · Rising · A · tracked 47 days
peak 100% (26d ago) · low 87% (44d ago)
21 tier changes over tracking period
24h move
▼
23.0 pts
October 31
Traded 24h
$4.3M
$36.9M all time
Resolves by
2027-01-01
Source markets
23
23 markets · mixed
Where the money stands
October 31
76%
▼
23.0
November 2
63%
▼
35.0
November 3
8%
0.0
November 6
6%
0.0
November 7
5%
0.0
November 5
5%
0.0
Source markets for this story
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Polymarket · October 31 76% · -23.0 24h
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
Polymarket · March 31 63% · -0.5 24h
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Polymarket · November 1 100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket · Yes 18%
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?
Polymarket · December 31, 2026 45% · +5.5 24h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Polymarket · Yes 4%
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
Polymarket · December 31 36% · +3.0 24h
Iran leadership change by...?
Polymarket · June 30, 2027 27% · -0.5 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Polymarket · Yes 12%
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
Polymarket · No Hormuz Agreement 99% · +2.6 24h
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Kalshi · Before Jan 1, 2029 61% · -1.0 24h
Iran coup attempt by...?
Polymarket · December 31, 2027 22% · -4.5 24h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
Polymarket · December 31 8% · +4.7 24h
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
Polymarket · December 31 27% · +0.5 24h
Iran leader end of 2026?
Polymarket · Mojtaba Khamenei 85% · -0.6 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
Polymarket · Yes 6% · -1.0 24h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Polymarket · Yes 5% · -1.9 24h
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Polymarket · Dilution of Iran's Uranium 16% · +1.0 24h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
Polymarket · December 31 14%
Iran full airspace closure by...?
Polymarket · December 31 35% · -3.0 24h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
Polymarket · December 31 6% · -1.0 24h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
Polymarket · December 31 4% · +1.2 24h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Polymarket · December 31 6%
The Money Talks —
Talks Will Probably Happen — But the Window Is Narrowing Fast
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