World

Iran Nuke before 2027?

By Priced In News Staff

very unlikely (5%)

Leading outcome Yes 5% Very unlikely · Stable · B · tracked 28 days

24h move 0.2 pts Yes

Traded 24h $11K $1.3M all time

Resolves by 2027-01-01

Source markets for this story

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause) Polymarket · September 18 97% · +6.2 24h

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Polymarket · December 31 64% · +3.5 24h

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 16%

Israel closes its airspace by...? Polymarket · September 30 97%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · September 15 99% · +0.7 24h

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...? Polymarket · March 31, 2027 57% · -1.0 24h

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? Polymarket · October 31 46% · -0.5 24h

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Polymarket · December 31 10%

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Polymarket · December 31 6%

Iran leadership change by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 28%

How high will oil (WTI) get by Dec 31, 2026? Kalshi · $115.01 or above 49% · +6.5 24h

Iran full airspace closure by...? Polymarket · December 31 26%

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 8%

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...? Polymarket · No Meeting by September 30 90% · -0.7 24h

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? Polymarket · December 31 8%