World

Iran Is Very Unlikely to Build a Nuclear Weapon Before 2027

By Priced In News Staff

very unlikely (4%)

Leading outcome Yes 4% Very unlikely · Stable · B · tracked 79 days

24h move ▲ 0.6 pts Yes

Traded 24h $51K $1.5M all time

Resolves by 2027-01-01

Source markets for this story

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · November 1 100%

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Polymarket · March 31 63%

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 16% · -1.0 24h

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Polymarket · Yes 10% · -1.0 24h

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? Polymarket · Yes 0%

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...? Polymarket · December 31 34% · -3.0 24h

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 4%

Iran leadership change by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 27% · -0.5 24h

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...? Polymarket · December 31, 2026 36% · -9.5 24h

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? Polymarket · Yes 6%

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Polymarket · December 31 12% · -2.0 24h

US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...? Polymarket · December 31 39% · +3.5 24h

Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...? Polymarket · December 31 28% · -15.5 24h

Iran full airspace closure by...? Polymarket · December 31 36% · +1.5 24h

Iran Nuke before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 4% · +0.6 24h

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? Polymarket · December 31 32% · +4.5 24h

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? Polymarket · December 31 2% · -2.0 24h

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...? Polymarket · December 31 8% · +2.0 24h

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Polymarket · Yes 7% · +2.2 24h