World

A Plague Pandemic in 2026 Remains a Remote Possibility

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Plague pandemic in 2026?”

very unlikely (5%)
Leading outcome Yes 5% Very unlikely · D
24h move 0.0 pts Yes
Traded 24h $19K $19K all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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World one clear front-runner

Marine Le Pen Leads France's 2027 Presidential Race as David Lisnard Surges

Marine Le Pen: probably not (43%)

Le Pen's path to the Élysée narrows slightly — she remains the clear favorite to reach the second round at 91%, but her first-round dominance is eroding as Lisnard consolidates center-right support, making the runoff matchup, not her nomination, the open question.

Updated 9:16 PM ET ▼ down overnight
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World leaning Luca Niculescu

Luca Niculescu Leads Romania's Prime Minister Race in a Fractured Field

Luca Niculescu: probably not (42%)

What was considered very unlikely for Niculescu just days ago is now a genuine plurality lead — but with 42% in a field where rivals are collapsing rather than conceding, this is a fragile front. Six conviction-rung swings since tracking began means Romania's political settlement remains genuinely unresolved.

Updated 5:12 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
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traded today $316K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 65 days range 53% (64d ago) – 25% (27d ago) unlikely → a coin flip 6 tier changes
World

Saudi Arabia's Yemen Campaign Is Very Likely to Escalate This Month

very likely (97%)

What had been an uncertain prospect just days ago is now a near-certain near-term reality — but the surrounding picture complicates any triumphalist read: the pipeline restart is fading, a ceasefire looks remote, and Houthi territorial ambitions remain very much alive.

Updated 2:11 AM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $56K markets read 4 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 6 days range 97% (0d ago) – 55% (5d ago) trending in today's news probably not → virtually certain