WorldGoldman Sachs on track to win

Goldman Sachs Is Likely to Lead OpenAI's IPO

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “Which bank will lead OpenAI's IPO?”

Goldman Sachs: likely (75%)
Leading outcome Goldman Sachs 75% Likely · Stable · C · tracked 13 days venues disagree 49.0pp
24h move 0.0 pts Goldman Sachs
Traded 24h $0 $23K all time
Resolves by 2028-01-01
Source markets 12 12 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Goldman Sachs 75% 0.0
Morgan Stanley 18% 0.0
JPMorgan Chase 4% 0.0
Citigroup 4% 0.0
Bank of America 1% 0.0
No Listed Underwriter 1% 0.0

Source markets for this story

IPOs before 2027? Polymarket · Anthropic 74% · -3.0 24h
What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be? Polymarket · <$1T 23% · +5.9 24h
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap Polymarket · No IPO by December 31, 2026 97%
When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO? Kalshi · Before May 1, 2027 63%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Polymarket · Yes 95%
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ? Polymarket · $800B 78% · -8.1 24h
Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? Kalshi · Anthropic 90% · -5.0 24h
OpenAI IPO by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 57% · +1.0 24h
How much will OpenAI raise in its IPO? Polymarket · $100B+ 30% · -2.5 24h
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap Polymarket · 1.5T+ 61% · +1.1 24h
Which banks will take OpenAI public? Kalshi · Stifel Financial 44%
Which bank will lead OpenAI's IPO? Kalshi · Goldman Sachs 75%
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

The AI IPO beat · compare all

Anthropic, OpenAI and the other AI labs on their way to public markets — when, at what valuation, and who goes first. Grouped so the two races can be read side by side.

Finance wide open

Anthropic's IPO Valuation Is Most Likely to Land Between $2.0T and $2.25T

$2.0–$2.25T: unlikely (23%)

The IPO itself looks very likely to happen — related markets price an announcement before April 2027 at 89% and a November 2026 listing at 59% — but the valuation band is genuinely uncertain, with the $2.5–$2.75T range closing fast as the second-biggest contender.

Updated 10:41 PM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $32K markets read 9 venue Polymarket grade A AI IPO beat
Finance wide open

OpenAI's IPO Valuation Is Likely to Clear $1 Trillion

<$1T: unlikely (23%)

The wide spread of outcomes — no single band above 21% — signals deep uncertainty about where OpenAI actually prices, but the floor looks increasingly firm: a sub-$1T result, which peaked at 40% six weeks ago, has now slid to its tracking low. Anthropic is priced to go public first, which may set the reference point that anchors OpenAI's eventual number.

Updated 10:41 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $4K markets read 12 venue Polymarket grade C trending in today's news AI IPO beat
Finance leaning SpaceX

SpaceX and Anthropic Are a Dead Heat for 2026's Biggest IPO

SpaceX: a coin flip (49%)

SpaceX has clawed back from probable underdog to co-favorite in two days, but this race has crossed conviction tiers ten times — the only settled conclusion is that no one knows which launch, rocket or AI, claims the year's marquee debut.

Updated 10:41 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $197 venue Polymarket grade D probably not → a coin flip AI IPO beat
Finance

SpaceX Will Not Join the S&P 500 This Year

virtually impossible (2%)

An IPO and index inclusion in the same calendar year was always a near-impossibility, and the money treats it as a virtual certainty that 2026 ends without SpaceX on the index — the question of when, not whether, remains the live debate.

Updated 10:41 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $0 venue Polymarket grade D AI IPO beat

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