Finance

Anthropic Is Likely to Go Public Before Year-End 2026

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Anthropic IPO by __?”

likely (80%)
Resolved The money put December 31, 2026 at 87% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome December 31, 2026 80% Likely · Stable · B · tracked 64 days peak 96% (27d ago) · low 62% (61d ago) leaning yes → likely 11 tier changes over tracking period venues disagree 46.9pp
24h move ▼ 1.0 pts December 31, 2026
Traded 24h $123K $4.2M all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01
Source markets 13 13 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

December 31, 2026 80% ▼ 1.0
December 15, 2026 76% ▲ 0.5
November 30, 2026 67% ▲ 6.5
November 15, 2026 20% ▼ 6.0
October 31, 2026 3% ▼ 1.4
October 15, 2026 0% 0.4

Source markets for this story

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? Kalshi · Before Mar 1, 2027 91% · +2.0 24h
Anthropic IPO by __? Polymarket · December 31, 2026 80% · -1.0 24h
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? Polymarket · ↑$1.5T 93% · +2.0 24h
Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...? Polymarket · December 31, 2029 20%
In which month will Anthropic IPO? Polymarket · November 2026 69% · +9.0 24h
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap Polymarket · $2.0–$2.25T 27% · +1.4 24h
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets) Polymarket · 1.8T+ 84% · +4.5 24h
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets) Polymarket · 600B+ 95% · -1.2 24h
What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be? Polymarket · $1.75–$2.00T 46% · +1.0 24h
Will Dario Amodei hold super-voting Anthropic shares at IPO? Kalshi · Yes 68% · +18.0 24h
Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO? Kalshi · Morgan Stanley 84% · +11.0 24h
Anthropic IPO closing market cap above ___ ? Polymarket · $1.5T 91%
Which banks will take Anthropic public? Kalshi · Mizuho 84%
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

The AI IPO beat · compare all

Anthropic, OpenAI and the other AI labs on their way to public markets — when, at what valuation, and who goes first. Grouped so the two races can be read side by side.

Finance leaning Anthropic

Anthropic Narrowly Edges SpaceX in the Race for Biggest 2026 IPO

Anthropic: a coin flip (47%)

At 47% to 46%, this is essentially a dead heat — Anthropic leads by the thinnest margin after SpaceX slipped, and a market that has crossed conviction boundaries twelve times offers no settled verdict; the outcome depends entirely on which company moves first and at what valuation.

Updated 3:01 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $151K venue Polymarket grade C AI IPO beat
Finance leaning 1.5T+

OpenAI's IPO Valuation Is Now a Coin Flip

1.5T+: a coin flip (51%)

What had been leaning toward a $1.5T-plus debut has collapsed to even odds after falling from a peak of 79% three weeks ago — while Anthropic's IPO path looks far cleaner, with an announcement very likely before March 2027 and an $1.8T-plus debut the stronger consensus.

Updated 3:01 PM ET ▼ down sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $15K markets read 10 venue Polymarket grade C leaning yes → a coin flip AI IPO beat
Finance

Anthropic or OpenAI Will Very Likely IPO Before the End of 2027

very likely (95%)

One of them going public first is now treated as near-certain; the live question is timing, with Anthropic priced at 90% to cross the line by end of 2026, suggesting the race may resolve sooner than markets coverage implies.

Updated 3:01 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $4K markets read 2 venue Polymarket grade B trending in today's news AI IPO beat

More from Finance

Finance odds favor Google

Google Is Likely the Top AI Lab by October's End

Google: likely (75%)

Anthropic's collapse — shedding nearly two-thirds of its probability overnight — is the real story: something in the market's collective read of the two companies' model pipelines has decisively shifted. Google's lead through October looks solid, but its advantage fades into a coin flip by December, suggesting rivals expect to close the gap before year-end.

Updated 8:14 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $435K markets read 7 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 42 days range 88% (2d ago) – 74% (23d ago) trending in today's news very unlikely → leaning yes 2 tier changes
Finance No change on track to win

The Fed Likely Holds Rates Steady in October

No change: likely (76%)

What had been leaning yes is now likely: a pause in October is the dominant expectation, but the broader picture is a hiking cycle still in motion — a rate increase by December is priced at 68%, and another hike somewhere in 2026 at 80%, meaning October's stillness is a pause, not a pivot.

Updated 3:02 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $2.0M markets read 7 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 64 days range 72% (34d ago) – 50% (13d ago) leaning yes → likely 4 tier changes
Finance

Google's Next Gemini Pro Model Is Unlikely to Arrive Before November

unlikely (16%)

What had been a near-certainty just two months ago is now unlikely — but with 16 conviction-rung crossings since tracking began, this market has whipsawed repeatedly, and the near-certain Gemini 4.0 release by November 30 suggests a launch is coming, just not on the October timeline traders once expected.

Updated 8:28 AM ET ▼ down sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $80K markets read 4 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 64 days range 98% (58d ago) – 14% (45d ago) trending in today's news very likely → probably not 16 tier changes