FinanceSpaceX on track to win

SpaceX Is Very Likely to Claim 2026's Largest IPO by Market Cap

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?”

SpaceX: very likely (92%)
Resolved The money put SpaceX at 94% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome SpaceX 92% Very likely · Rising · C · tracked 106 days peak 95% (1d ago) · low 45% (48d ago) 25 tier changes over tracking period
24h move ▼ 3.6 pts SpaceX
Traded 24h $55K $8.0M all time
Resolves by 2027-01-02

Where the money stands

SpaceX 92% ▼ 3.6
Anthropic 7% ▲ 2.3
OpenAI 0% 0.0
ByteDance 0% 0.0
Stripe 0% 0.0
Databricks 0% 0.0
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

The AI IPO beat · compare all

Anthropic, OpenAI and the other AI labs on their way to public markets — when, at what valuation, and who goes first. Grouped so the two races can be read side by side.

Finance November 19 on track to win

Anthropic's IPO Is Likely Set for November 19

November 19: likely (85%)

What had been a long-shot date is now the strong favorite after a dramatic single-day repricing — but this market has whipsawed eight times across conviction tiers, so the date remains a likely, not a locked, conclusion.

Updated 9:05 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $35K venue Polymarket grade C AI IPO beat
Finance wide open

OpenAI Is Likely to Debut Above a $1 Trillion Valuation

<$1T: unlikely (23%)

A sub-trillion debut has slipped from probably-not to unlikely in a single session, with the center of gravity now clustering around the $1.5T–$1.75T range — though a market that has crossed conviction rungs nine times offers no settled answer on the final number.

Updated 9:05 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $9K markets read 10 venue Polymarket grade B trending in today's news AI IPO beat
Finance

Anthropic Is Very Likely to IPO Before 2027

very likely (96%)

The AI arms race is forcing a capital reckoning — Anthropic almost certainly needs public markets to fund competition at scale, though a market that has swung across conviction rungs 15 times since tracking began counsels against treating this as settled.

Updated 9:05 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $12K venue Polymarket grade D virtually certain → very likely AI IPO beat
Finance

SpaceX's S&P 500 Entry Is a Dead Heat Through March 2027

a coin flip (50%)

A coin-flip split on one of the most anticipated listings in years reflects genuine uncertainty about whether Elon Musk will take SpaceX public on any predictable schedule — the money is not betting against it, but it is not betting on it either.

Updated 9:05 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $0 venue Polymarket grade D AI IPO beat

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Jensen Huang Is Very Likely to Leave Nvidia Before 2028

very likely (92%)

What three days ago looked like a remote possibility is now a near-consensus call — the money has repriced Huang's departure from unlikely to very likely across every time horizon through 2027, though the market's violent swings counsel against treating this as settled. A divorce market ticking up alongside suggests traders may be pricing in personal turbulence as a catalyst, not just corporate succession.

Updated 8:16 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
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traded today $4.3M markets read 5 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 4 days range 92% (0d ago) – 14% (3d ago) unlikely → likely 2 tier changes venues agree
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A Fed Rate Hike in January 2027 Is Now a Coin Flip

25 bps increase: a coin flip (50%)

What was unlikely just days ago is now an even-money question — and the broader picture is unambiguous: the Fed is very likely hiking twice in 2026 with no cuts, and whether that tightening cycle extends into January is suddenly live. This is a policy path that markets have repriced sharply, though the conviction has crossed rungs six times; treat the January call as genuinely open, not settled.

Updated 4:53 AM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $1.1M markets read 8 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 58 days range 78% (2d ago) – 46% (45d ago) leaning yes → a coin flip 6 tier changes
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Anthropic Is Likely to Hit a $1.5 Trillion Valuation by Year-End

likely (79%)

What had been a lean is now a likely call — but with this market having crossed conviction thresholds 16 times, the reading is volatile. The IPO-day market caps cluster around $1.25–$1.5 trillion, suggesting the post-listing price may land just at, not comfortably above, the threshold; the $2 trillion scenario is a surging but still minority view.

Updated 7:56 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $251K markets read 18 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 106 days range 99% (77d ago) – 73% (1d ago) leaning yes → likely 16 tier changes venues disagree 87.5pp