WorldMorgan Stanley on track to win

Morgan Stanley Is Likely to Lead Anthropic's IPO Underwriting

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO?”

Morgan Stanley: likely (78%)
Leading outcome Morgan Stanley 78% Likely · Rising · B · tracked 13 days peak 86% (1d ago) · low 76% (12d ago) venues disagree 15.3pp
24h move 0.0 pts Morgan Stanley
Traded 24h $0 $39K all time
Resolves by 2028-01-01
Source markets 22 22 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Morgan Stanley 78% 0.0
Goldman Sachs 16% 0.0
JPMorgan Chase 3% 0.0
Citigroup 3% 0.0
Bank of America 2% 0.0
No Listed Underwriter 2% 0.0

Source markets for this story

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap Polymarket · $2.0–$2.25T 23% · -1.9 24h
Anthropic IPO by __? Polymarket · December 31, 2026 76% · -0.5 24h
IPOs before 2027? Polymarket · Anthropic 76% · -1.5 24h
When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? Kalshi · Before Apr 1, 2027 89% · -1.0 24h
What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be? Polymarket · <$1T 23% · +5.9 24h
In which month will Anthropic IPO? Polymarket · November 2026 59% · +4.5 24h
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets) Polymarket · 1.8T+ 82%
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap Polymarket · No IPO by December 31, 2026 97%
What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be? Polymarket · $1.75–$2.00T 46% · +2.5 24h
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Polymarket · Yes 95%
When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO? Kalshi · Before May 1, 2027 63%
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ? Polymarket · $800B 78% · -8.1 24h
Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? Kalshi · Anthropic 90% · -5.0 24h
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets) Polymarket · 600B+ 96%
OpenAI IPO by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 57%
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? Polymarket · SpaceX 49% · +5.0 24h
How much will OpenAI raise in its IPO? Polymarket · $100B+ 30% · -2.5 24h
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap Polymarket · 1.5T+ 61% · +1.1 24h
Which banks will take OpenAI public? Kalshi · Stifel Financial 44%
Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO? Kalshi · Morgan Stanley 78%
Which banks will take Anthropic public? Kalshi · Mizuho 84%
Which bank will lead OpenAI's IPO? Kalshi · Goldman Sachs 75%
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

The AI IPO beat · compare all

Anthropic, OpenAI and the other AI labs on their way to public markets — when, at what valuation, and who goes first. Grouped so the two races can be read side by side.

Finance wide open

Anthropic's IPO Valuation Is Most Likely to Land Between $2.0T and $2.25T

$2.0–$2.25T: unlikely (23%)

The IPO itself looks very likely to happen — related markets price an announcement before April 2027 at 89% and a November 2026 listing at 59% — but the valuation band is genuinely uncertain, with the $2.5–$2.75T range closing fast as the second-biggest contender.

Updated 11:29 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $32K markets read 22 venue Polymarket grade A AI IPO beat
Finance

SpaceX Will Not Join the S&P 500 This Year

virtually impossible (2%)

An IPO and index inclusion in the same calendar year was always a near-impossibility, and the money treats it as a virtual certainty that 2026 ends without SpaceX on the index — the question of when, not whether, remains the live debate.

Updated 11:29 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $0 venue Polymarket grade D AI IPO beat

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