Financeone clear front-runner

How much will OpenAI raise in its IPO?

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “How much will OpenAI raise in its IPO?”

$90B–$100B: probably not (41%)
Leading outcome $90B–$100B 41% Probably not · Rising · C · tracked 31 days peak 55% (27d ago) · low 29% (2d ago) unlikely → probably not 4 tier changes over tracking period venues disagree 50.0pp
24h move ▲ 22.0 pts $90B–$100B
Traded 24h $2K $11K all time
Resolves by 2028-01-01
Source markets 13 13 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

$90B–$100B 41% ▲ 22.0
<$30B 17% ▲ 1.1
$40B–$50B 16% ▼ 14.1
$100B+ 14% ▼ 15.0
$80B–$90B 11% 0.2
$70B–$80B 8% ▲ 3.4

Source markets for this story

IPOs before 2027? Polymarket · Anthropic 72% · -1.0 24h
When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO? Kalshi · Before Jun 1, 2027 48%
What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be? Polymarket · <$1T 22%
Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? Kalshi · Anthropic 93% · +1.0 24h
How much will OpenAI raise in its IPO? Polymarket · $90B–$100B 41% · +22.0 24h
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap Polymarket · 1.5T+ 45%
OpenAI IPO by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 34%
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap Polymarket · No IPO by December 31, 2026 97%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Polymarket · Yes 95%
Which bank will lead OpenAI's IPO? Kalshi · Goldman Sachs 73% · -2.0 24h
Which banks will take OpenAI public? Kalshi · Stifel Financial 44%
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ? Polymarket · $800B 80% · +0.9 24h
Will Sam Altman hold super-voting OpenAI shares at IPO? Kalshi · Yes 21%
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

The AI IPO beat · compare all

Anthropic, OpenAI and the other AI labs on their way to public markets — when, at what valuation, and who goes first. Grouped so the two races can be read side by side.

Finance odds favor SpaceX

SpaceX Now Favored for the Largest IPO of 2026

SpaceX: leaning yes (64%)

What was a coin flip has tilted toward SpaceX as Anthropic's chances collapsed in tandem — but with 17 conviction-rung crossings in this market's history, the lead is real and fragile at once.

Updated 6:51 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $61K venue Polymarket grade C a coin flip → leaning yes AI IPO beat
Finance a real race

Anthropic's IPO Valuation Is Expected Between $1.75T and $2.0T, but the Range Is Wide Open

$1.75–$2.0T: probably not (26%)

Expectations are drifting toward the lower end of the valuation spectrum — the $1.5–$1.75T bucket surged as a contender — yet the IPO itself is still very likely to happen before April 2027, meaning the real uncertainty is price, not timing.

Updated 6:51 PM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $87K markets read 12 venue Polymarket grade B AI IPO beat
Finance

SpaceX Will Very Likely Stay Private Through 2026

virtually impossible (2%)

Elon Musk's rocket company joining the S&P 500 this year remains a remote scenario — no IPO, no index inclusion, and thin trading volume suggests even dedicated watchers have largely stopped debating the timeline.

Updated 6:51 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $0 venue Polymarket grade D AI IPO beat

More from Finance

Finance No change on track to win

The Fed Likely Holds Rates in October — Then Likely Hikes in December

No change: likely (84%)

A pause in October is increasingly the baseline, but it is a waystation, not a destination — the money now leans toward a hike–pause–hike sequence that would make December the real decision point for how far this tightening cycle runs.

Updated 12:31 AM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $2.2M markets read 8 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 79 days range 84% (7d ago) – 50% (28d ago) leaning yes → likely 6 tier changes
Finance odds favor SpaceX

SpaceX Now Favored for the Largest IPO of 2026

SpaceX: leaning yes (65%)

What was a coin flip has tilted toward SpaceX as Anthropic's chances collapsed in tandem — but with 17 conviction-rung crossings in this market's history, the lead is real and fragile at once.

Updated 5:14 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $63K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 79 days range 94% (73d ago) – 45% (21d ago) a coin flip → leaning yes 17 tier changes AI IPO beat
Finance

The 10-Year Treasury Yield Is Unlikely to Fall Below 4.7% This Year

unlikely (20%)

Higher-for-longer is hardening into the base case — what was merely "probably not" a day ago is now unlikely, suggesting the bond market sees little near-term relief for borrowers and rate-sensitive assets heading into 2027.

Updated 12:08 PM ET ▼ down sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $29K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 39 days range 52% (24d ago) – 10% (38d ago) probably not → unlikely 2 tier changes