U.S.odds favor Democratic party

Democrats Now Favor Alaska's Senate Seat in a Striking Shift

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “Alaska Senate winner?”

Democratic party: leaning yes (65%)
Resolved The money put Democratic party at 53% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome Democratic party 65% Leaning yes · Rising · A · tracked 32 days peak 66% (1d ago) · low 51% (31d ago)
24h move ▲ 1.0 pts Democratic party
Traded 24h $71K $948K all time
Resolves by 2027-11-03
Source markets 11 11 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Democratic party 65% ▲ 1.0
Republican party 35% ▼ 1.0

Source markets for this story

Texas Senate winner? Kalshi · James Talarico 52% · -1.0 24h
Maine Senate winner? Kalshi · Troy Jackson 67% · +2.0 24h
Alaska Senate winner? Kalshi · Democratic party 65% · +1.0 24h
Ohio Senate winner? Kalshi · Sherrod Brown 54% · -1.0 24h
Nebraska Senate winner? Kalshi · Pete Ricketts 68% · -2.0 24h
Iowa Senate winner? Kalshi · Ashley Hinson 61%
Michigan Senate winner? Kalshi · Abdul El-Sayed 64% · +2.0 24h
Kansas Senate winner? Kalshi · Roger Marshall 78% · +1.0 24h
Maine Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Troy Jackson (D) 70%
Michigan Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 66% · +5.0 24h
Texas Senate Election Winner Polymarket · James Talarico (D) 56% · +0.5 24h
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

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Democratic Party: likely (88%)

A House flip looks probable, but full Democratic control of Congress remains a different, narrower bet — the Senate leans Republican, making unified Democratic government unlikely even if the House flips, and restraining what any new House majority could actually deliver.

Updated 1:07 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $41K markets read 6 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 50 days trending in today's news 4 tier changes venues disagree 35.5pp
U.S.

Trump Publicly Attacking Kevin Warsh This Year Is a Dead Heat

a coin flip (46%)

The slight drift away from a public attack suggests the relationship is holding — but the market's near-even split means any signal from either side could reprice it fast, and the question itself reveals how closely the world is watching for signs that the Fed chair-in-waiting might already be losing the president's confidence.

Updated 7:42 PM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $423K venue Kalshi grade C trending in today's news probably not → a coin flip
U.S. odds favor Abdul El-Sayed (D)

Abdul El-Sayed Increasingly Favors to Win Michigan's Senate Race

Abdul El-Sayed (D): leaning yes (64%)

A Democratic lean in Michigan is hardening, not softening — if it holds, it narrows Republicans' path to a Senate majority and signals the state is not the easy pickup the GOP once counted on.

Updated 8:28 AM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $16K markets read 11 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 44 days range 66% (0d ago) – 56% (32d ago)