U.S.one clear front-runner

Trump's Approval Rating Sits Narrowly Above 38.5 on October 18

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 18, 2026?”

38.6%: probably not (29%)
From our archive This story ran in an earlier edition of the paper. It stays on the record at this address; the front page and sections carry only current stories.
Leading outcome 38.6% 29% Probably not · C
24h move 0.0 pts 38.6%
Traded 24h $229K $231K all time
Resolves by 2026-10-18 Today

Where the money stands

38.6% 29% 0.0
38.7% 18% 0.0
38.8% 16% 0.0
Below 38.4% 13% 0.0
38.4% 10% 0.0
38.5% 9% 0.0
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

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Democrats Increasingly Favored to Retake the Senate

Democratic Party: leaning yes (64%)

With Ohio and Texas both leaning Democratic and the House already near-certain to flip, the money now prices a full Democratic sweep of Congress at 61% — a unified opposition government that would reshape the final two years of any Republican White House agenda.

Updated 5:34 PM ET ▲ up overnight
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U.S. wide open

Vance Leads a Wide-Open 2028 Presidential Field as AOC Surges

J.D. Vance: unlikely (20%)

No candidate commands conviction — the field is so fractured that the nominal frontrunner holds barely one-in-five odds, meaning the 2028 race is genuinely anyone's to claim. AOC's nomination odds remain well below her general-election ceiling, signaling real doubt she clears the Democratic primary.

Updated 9:50 AM ET – barely changed since yesterday
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U.S.

Karoline Leavitt's Replacement Is Likely Coming by Year-End

likely (80%)

Katie Zacharia is virtually certain to be out as press secretary before December, and the money now places the successor announcement late in the year — with Elizabeth Pipko fading sharply as a candidate and Scott Jennings the longer-shot alternative still in view.

Updated 2:55 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $230K markets read 3 venue Polymarket grade B venues disagree 23.4pp