The Fed Is Very Likely to Cut Rates Well Below 4% by Late 2026
Source: Kalshi market “SOFR for November 6, 2026”
3.90% or Below: very likely (91%)
Leading outcome
3.90% or Below 91%
Very likely · B
leaning yes → very likely
24h move
▲
31.0 pts
3.90% or Below
Traded 24h
$38K
$40K all time
Resolves by
2026-11-09
in 1 day
Source markets
3
3 markets · mixed
Where the money stands
3.90% or Below
91%
▲
31.0
Exactly 3.95%
3%
0.0
Exactly 3.94%
2%
0.0
Exactly 3.91%
1%
0.0
Exactly 3.92%
1%
0.0
Exactly 3.93%
1%
0.0
Source markets for this story
Fed Decision in December?
Polymarket · 25 bps increase 76%
Fed decision in Dec 2026?
Kalshi · Hike 25bps 77% · +1.0 24h
SOFR for November 6, 2026
Kalshi · 3.90% or Below 91% · +31.0 24h
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