August Job Creation Will Narrowly Avoid Outright Contraction
Source: Kalshi market “Jobs numbers in Aug 2026?”
very likely (95%)
Leading outcome
Above -100,000 95%
Very likely · B
24h move
▲
4.0 pts
Above -100,000
Traded 24h
$33K
$118K all time
Resolves by
2026-09-04
in 3 days
Source markets
4
4 markets · mixed
Where the money stands
Above -100,000
95%
▲
4.0
Above -75,000
93%
0.0
Above -50,000
90%
0.0
Above -25,000
85%
▼
1.0
Above 0
75%
▲
2.0
Above 10,000
71%
▲
1.0
Source markets for this story
CPI in August
Kalshi · Above -0.3% 99%
Inflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
Kalshi · Above 2.5% 99%
Unemployment in August
Kalshi · Above 3.8% 99%
Jobs numbers in Aug 2026?
Kalshi · Above -100,000 95% · +4.0 24h
Get an alert when Us Inflation Jobs moves.
The Front Page, every morning — what the markets believe about the world.