Finance

US Crude Reserves Are Likely to Fall to 280 Million Barrels by Late September

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by September 25?”

likely (86%)
Resolved The money put 280M at 90% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome 280M 86% Likely · Falling · B · tracked 48 days peak 90% (46d ago) · low 82% (45d ago)
24h move ▼ 3.4 pts 280M
Traded 24h $13K $34K all time
Resolves by 2026-10-07

Where the money stands

280M 86% ▼ 3.4
270M 52% ▼ 1.0
260M 3% ▼ 5.6
250M 2% ▼ 3.0
200M 2% 0.4
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

More from Finance

Finance No change on track to win

The Fed Likely Holds Rates in October — Then Likely Hikes in December

No change: likely (84%)

A pause in October is increasingly the baseline, but it is a waystation, not a destination — the money now leans toward a hike–pause–hike sequence that would make December the real decision point for how far this tightening cycle runs.

Updated 12:31 AM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $2.2M markets read 4 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 81 days range 86% (0d ago) – 50% (30d ago) 7 tier changes
Finance leaning 1.5T+

OpenAI's IPO Valuation Is a Coin Flip on Whether It Clears $1.5 Trillion

1.5T+: a coin flip (46%)

The money has walked back its ambitions sharply — from a peak of 79% just five weeks ago to a dead heat — while a no-IPO-by-2027 outcome sits at 24%, meaning the event itself is far from guaranteed, let alone the mega-cap price tag.

Updated 7:31 AM ET ▼ down sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $16K markets read 14 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 64 days range 79% (39d ago) – 40% (62d ago) 13 tier changes venues disagree 60.3pp AI IPO beat
Finance

New Jersey Gas Prices Are Very Likely to Stay Above $3.80 Through Year-End

very likely (95%)

What had been an unlikely outcome is now a near-certainty — and the related markets price gas above $4.16 at 99%, suggesting the floor is not $3.80 but considerably higher, pointing to sustained pump-price pain for New Jersey drivers through December.

Updated 4:49 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $51K markets read 9 venue Kalshi grade B tracked 5 days unlikely → very likely