Financeleaning 25 bps increase

A Fed Rate Hike in January 2027 Is Now a Coin Flip

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Fed Decision in January?”

25 bps increase: a coin flip (54%)
Resolved The money put No change at 78% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome 25 bps increase 54% A coin flip · Falling · A · tracked 58 days peak 78% (2d ago) · low 46% (45d ago) 6 tier changes over tracking period
24h move ▲ 6.0 pts 25 bps increase
Traded 24h $673K $2.8M all time
Resolves by 2027-01-28
Source markets 8 8 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

25 bps increase 54% ▲ 6.0
No change 46% ▼ 5.5
50+ bps increase 1% ▼ 0.6
50+ bps decrease 0% 0.0
25 bps decrease 0% 0.1

Source markets for this story

Fed Decision in December? Polymarket · 25 bps increase 86%
Fed decision in Dec 2026? Kalshi · Hike 25bps 85% · +1.0 24h
Fed Decision in January? Polymarket · 25 bps increase 54% · +6.0 24h
Fed Decision in March? Polymarket · 25 bps increase 58% · +4.0 24h
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? Polymarket · 4.25% 86%
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? Polymarket · Yes 96% · +0.7 24h
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? Polymarket · 0 (0 bps) 98%
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026? Polymarket · 2 (50 bps) 84% · -0.5 24h
The Money Talks — The Fed Likely Holds Rates Steady in October — And the Case Is Getting Stronger
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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