Finance25 bps increase on track to win

The Fed Is Likely to Hike Rates in December

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Fed Decision in December?”

25 bps increase: likely (79%)
Leading outcome 25 bps increase 79% Likely · Stable · A · tracked 56 days peak 72% (3d ago) · low 44% (23d ago) leaning yes → likely 4 tier changes over tracking period
24h move ▲ 10.5 pts 25 bps increase
Traded 24h $329K $1.7M all time
Resolves by 2026-12-10
Source markets 6 6 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

25 bps increase 79% ▲ 10.5
No change 18% ▼ 9.0
50+ bps increase 2% ▼ 1.0
25 bps decrease 2% ▼ 0.5
50+ bps decrease 0% 0.0

Source markets for this story

Fed Decision in October? Polymarket · 25 bps increase 66% · +1.0 24h
Fed Decision in December? Polymarket · 25 bps increase 79% · +10.5 24h
Fed decision in Oct 2026? Kalshi · Hike 25bps 68% · +4.0 24h
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? Polymarket · 0 (0 bps) 97% · +0.5 24h
Number of rate cuts in 2026? Kalshi · Exactly 0 cuts 95%
Fed Decision in January? Polymarket · 25 bps increase 48% · +13.0 24h
The Money Talks — The Fed Is Probably Raising Rates in October — Don't Sleep on That 64%
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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traded today $540K markets read 18 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 61 days range 92% (37d ago) – 66% (10d ago) trending in today's news 11 tier changes