World

Merz Looks Set to Survive as German Chancellor Through Year-End

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?”

unlikely (20%)
Resolved The money put Yes at 17% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome December 31, 2026 20% Unlikely · Stable · C · tracked 43 days peak 30% · low 12% (13d ago) probably not → unlikely
24h move ▼ 7.0 pts December 31, 2026
Traded 24h $147K $1.5M all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01

Where the money stands

December 31, 2026 20% ▼ 7.0
October 31, 2026 13% 0.0
September 30, 2026 6% 0.0
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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very likely (95%)

A late-September window is drawing fresh interest as the likeliest timing, even as the broader conviction has eased slightly from a peak set a week ago — the visit itself is no longer seriously in doubt, only the calendar.

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Russia Is Likely to Enter Dopropillia by Year-End

likely (86%)

Dopropillia's fall looks probable, but the rest of the Donbas cluster is softening — odds on Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk, and Sloviansk all retreating — meaning the offensive increasingly looks like a slow grind toward one city rather than a broad breakthrough.

Updated 10:46 AM ET – barely changed since yesterday
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