World

Trump and Putin Are Likely to Meet This Year — Probably in China

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Trump meets with Putin by...?”

likely (76%)
Resolved The money put December 31 at 35% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome December 31 76% Likely · Rising · B · tracked 70 days peak 76% (26d ago) · low 36% (68d ago) 3 tier changes over tracking period
24h move ▼ 1.0 pts December 31
Traded 24h $24K $349K all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01
Source markets 8 8 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

December 31 76% ▼ 1.0
November 30 68% 0.0
September 30 0% 0.1

Source markets for this story

NBA: 2027 Champion Polymarket · Oklahoma City Thunder 24% · +1.0 24h
Putin out as President of Russia by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 10%
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...? Polymarket · November 30 96% · +20.5 24h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? Polymarket · December 31, 2027 72%
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...? Polymarket · December 31 74% · +1.5 24h
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...? Polymarket · December 31, 2027 52% · +2.0 24h
Will Russia target Kyiv on...? Polymarket · October 26 90% · -1.0 24h
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027? Polymarket · No meeting before 2027 93%
The Money Talks — Russia's Capture of Dobropillia Is Very Likely a Matter of When, Not Whether
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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Russia and Ukraine Are Very Likely to Meet at the Diplomatic Table Before Year's End

very likely (96%)

What had been uncertain is now a near-certainty for talks — but the related markets tell a harder story: a Zelenskyy-Putin summit remains very unlikely before 2027, Kyiv faces continued strikes, and a ceasefire is still a coin flip. Diplomacy is coming; peace is not.

Updated 3:33 AM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
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A NATO-Russia Military Clash by Year-End Is Increasingly the Live Scenario

probably not (34%)

After spending most of the past six weeks well below current levels, money has flooded back into the collision scenario — recovering from a low of 18% forty days ago to sit near its peak today. The volatility here is extreme; this is not a settled verdict but a genuine and rising fear, with near-term windows through October now surging alongside the year-end contract.

Updated 11:28 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $491K venue Polymarket grade B tracked 86 days range 35% (0d ago) – 18% (40d ago) unlikely → probably not 16 tier changes
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Eizenkot Leads Israel's Next Prime Minister Race in a Volatile Dead Heat

Gadi Eizenkot: a coin flip (50%)

Bennett's surge signals the race is fragmenting further rather than consolidating — with Eizenkot recovering from an 11-day low but still unable to pull clear, Israel's post-election leadership remains genuinely unresolved.

Updated 3:00 AM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $713K markets read 4 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 86 days range 58% (60d ago) – 42% (12d ago) resolves in 5 days trending in today's news 8 tier changes venues disagree 5.5pp