Curiosities

GameStop Is Not Buying eBay

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Will GameStop acquire eBay?”

very unlikely (8%)
Resolved The money put Yes at 12% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome Yes 8% Very unlikely · Stable · C · tracked 87 days peak 13% (86d ago) · low 6% (2d ago)
24h move ▲ 2.5 pts Yes
Traded 24h $27K $3.3M all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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US Imports of Russian Diesel Are Now Only a Lean Favorite to Happen This Year

leaning yes (70%)

What the fact that people stake real money on whether the US will buy Russian diesel reveals is how thoroughly the post-sanctions world has scrambled the old energy order — and yesterday's near-certainty became today's genuine toss-up, a sign this market knows something shifted overnight.

Updated 11:55 AM ET ▼ down sharply overnight
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traded today $78K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 20 days range 92% (1d ago) – 18% (15d ago) very likely → leaning yes 8 tier changes
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Another OpenAI Math Breakthrough Is Now Too Close to Call by 2027

a coin flip (54%)

That people are staking real money on whether a company solves century-old mathematical problems on a schedule reveals how thoroughly AI has rewritten expectations about what is possible — and when. What was recently written off as unlikely is now a genuine coin flip, though the market has swung wildly since peaking near certainty six weeks ago.

Updated 7:29 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $64K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 50 days range 93% (48d ago) – 39% (2d ago) leaning yes → a coin flip 13 tier changes
Curiosities

A Tesla-SpaceX Merger Announcement Is Leaning Toward Late 2027

leaning yes (66%)

Real money is treating this not as fantasy but as a live scheduling question — the fact that traders are arbitraging specific deadline buckets reveals that a merger is considered a genuine near-term corporate event, not a remote tail risk, even as conviction has slipped from likely to a lean.

Updated 2:22 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $27K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 92 days range 79% (44d ago) – 17% (91d ago) likely → leaning yes 6 tier changes