Worldodds favor Flávio Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro Likely Finishes Second in Brazil's First Round

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place”

Flávio Bolsonaro: leaning yes (74%)
Resolved The money put Flávio Bolsonaro at 83% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome Flávio Bolsonaro 74% Leaning yes · Rising · B · tracked 60 days peak 90% (21d ago) · low 70% (5d ago) 7 tier changes over tracking period venues disagree 42.2pp
24h move 0.0 pts Flávio Bolsonaro
Traded 24h $149K $8.1M all time
Resolves by 2026-10-05
Source markets 5 3/5 markets agree

Where the money stands

Flávio Bolsonaro 74% 0.0
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 26% ▲ 0.5
Renan Santos 0% 0.1
Augusto Cury 0% 0.0
Ronaldo Caiado 0% 0.1
Tarcisio de Freitas 0% 0.0

Source markets for this story

Brazil Presidential Election Polymarket · Flávio Bolsonaro 57% · +1.1 24h
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place Polymarket · Flávio Bolsonaro 74%
Brazil Presidential election winner? Kalshi · Flávio Bolsonaro 57% · +2.0 24h
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place Polymarket · Augusto Cury 45% · +4.0 24h
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff? Polymarket · Flavio Bolsonaro 98%
The Money Talks — Flávio Bolsonaro Probably Wins in 2026 — and the Race Just Shifted Beneath Lula's Feet
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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