World

A US Strike on Cuba This Year Is Very Unlikely

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “US military action against Cuba by...?”

unlikely (12%)
Resolved The money put December 31 at 26% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome December 31 12% Unlikely · Stable · D · tracked 65 days peak 26% (61d ago) · low 10% (1d ago) very unlikely → unlikely 5 tier changes over tracking period
24h move ▲ 2.0 pts December 31
Traded 24h $18K $7.6M all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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Hormuz Will Not Return to Normal Before Year-End

very unlikely (3%)

The disruption has become the baseline, not the exception — with normalization odds collapsed to near-zero through October and barely 20% by December, traders see no near-term off-ramp. The Saudi East-West pipeline restart at 74% suggests the market is already pricing in workarounds, not a resolution.

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the numbers
traded today $140K markets read 17 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 52 days range 22% (49d ago) – 2% (1d ago) virtually impossible → very unlikely 3 tier changes
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Updated 7:55 PM ET ▼ down sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $423K markets read 17 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 67 days range 90% (28d ago) – 58% (0d ago) resolves in 1 day trending in today's news 11 tier changes venues disagree 32.5pp
World leaning Marine Le Pen

Marine Le Pen Leads France's 2027 Presidential Race at a Career-High 43%

Marine Le Pen: probably not (43%)

Her peak is also her present — she has never been priced higher — yet the field behind her, led by Philippe at 20% and Mélenchon at 14%, means she leads a fragmented race rather than commands it, and the money does not yet see a path to a majority coalition forming against her.

Updated 9:37 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $758K venue Polymarket grade B tracked 67 days range 46% (1d ago) – 29% (66d ago) trending in today's news probably not → a coin flip