FinancePause-Hike-Pause on track to win

The Fed Is Likely to Pause, Hike, Then Pause Again Through January

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)”

Pause-Hike-Pause: likely (76%)
Leading outcome Pause-Hike-Pause 76% Likely · Rising · B · tracked 21 days peak 76% · low 47% (20d ago) leaning yes → likely 2 tier changes over tracking period
24h move ▲ 15.0 pts Pause-Hike-Pause
Traded 24h $23K $143K all time
Resolves by 2027-01-27
Source markets 4 4 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Pause-Hike-Pause 76% ▲ 15.0
Pause-Pause-Hike 11% 0.1
Pause-Pause-Pause 8% ▼ 5.0
Pause-Hike-Hike 5% ▼ 5.5
Other 1% 0.2

Source markets for this story

Fed Decision in December? Polymarket · 25 bps increase 76% · +3.0 24h
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? Polymarket · Yes 74% · +2.0 24h
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? Polymarket · 0 (0 bps) 97%
Fed decisions (Oct-Jan) Polymarket · Pause-Hike-Pause 76% · +15.0 24h
The Money Talks — The Fed Likely Holds Rates Steady in October — And the Case Is Getting Stronger
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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Updated 12:04 AM ET ▲ up overnight
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Updated 12:05 AM ET – barely changed since yesterday
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traded today $105K markets read 14 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 86 days range 40% (19d ago) – 17% (80d ago) 13 tier changes venues disagree 3.0pp AI IPO beat
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Updated 12:54 AM ET ▼ down sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $84K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 27 days range 86% (2d ago) – 56% (26d ago) resolves in 1 day likely → leaning yes