Finance

Meta Is All But Certain to Close Above $690 This Week

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Will Meta (META) finish week of September 28 above___?”

virtually certain (98%)
From our archive This story ran in an earlier edition of the paper. It stays on the record at this address; the front page and sections carry only current stories.
Leading outcome $700 98% Virtually certain · D leaning yes → virtually certain
24h move ▲ 5.0 pts $700
Traded 24h $18K $19K all time
Resolves by 2026-10-02 Today

Where the money stands

$700 98% ▲ 5.0
$690 98% ▲ 0.9
$710 95% ▲ 10.7
$720 94% ▲ 28.0
$730 48% ▲ 4.0
$740 6% ▼ 16.5
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

More from Finance

Finance

Anthropic Is Very Likely to Announce an IPO Before April 2027

very likely (91%)

What had been uncertain is now a near-certainty on timing — the money has also zeroed in on late 2026, with a November window gaining ground fast, implying the filing machinery is already in motion. A 20% bankruptcy probability within three years means this IPO is a race against the clock as much as a triumph.

Updated 12:12 PM ET ▲ drifting up for days
the numbers
traded today $115K markets read 12 venue Kalshi grade B tracked 61 days range 98% (25d ago) – 84% (60d ago) trending in today's news probably not → very likely 11 tier changes venues disagree 46.9pp AI IPO beat
Finance No change on track to win

The Fed Will Likely Hold Rates in October — but a December Hike Remains on the Table

No change: likely (82%)

A pause in October is now the strong base case, but the broader picture is a Fed that has almost certainly abandoned cuts for 2026 and is still debating whether to hike once or twice before year-end — with a hike-pause-hike sequence drawing roughly even money.

Updated 8:57 AM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $2.8M markets read 8 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 65 days range 74% (0d ago) – 50% (14d ago) leaning yes → likely 4 tier changes
Finance odds favor Anthropic

Anthropic Edges Ahead in the Race for 2026's Biggest IPO

Anthropic: leaning yes (58%)

What had been a coin flip is now leaning yes for Anthropic, but this market has crossed conviction boundaries twelve times — SpaceX's sharp retreat is the real signal, suggesting traders read something concrete about sequencing rather than a settled outcome.

Updated 5:43 AM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $177K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 65 days range 94% (59d ago) – 45% (7d ago) a coin flip → leaning yes 12 tier changes AI IPO beat