Finance

A 2026 Fed Rate Hike Remains Too Close to Call

By Priced In News Staff

very likely (96%)

Leading outcome Yes 96% Very likely · Stable · A · tracked 49 days peak 92% (1d ago) · low 46% (31d ago) 4 tier changes over tracking period

24h move ▲ 3.5 pts Yes

Traded 24h $300K $9.7M all time

Resolves by 2026-12-09

Source markets for this story

Fed Decision in September? Polymarket · 25 bps increase 88% · +1.0 24h

Fed decision in Sep 2026? Kalshi · Hike 25bps 88% · +1.0 24h

Fed rate hike in 2026? Polymarket · Yes 96% · +3.5 24h

Fed Decision in October? Polymarket · No change 60% · -1.0 24h

Next Fed rate hike? Kalshi · Before 2028 97%

Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting? Kalshi · Above 2.75% 99%

Fed rate hike by...? Polymarket · October Meeting 90% · +2.0 24h

How many dissenting votes at the September Fed meeting? Kalshi · 0 40% · +3.0 24h

Fed Decision in December? Polymarket · 25 bps increase 60% · +2.5 24h

What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference? Kalshi · Good Day 93% · +3.0 24h

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? Polymarket · 0 (0 bps) 94%

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026? Polymarket · 1 (25 bps) 48% · -2.0 24h

What will Kevin Warsh say during September Press Conference? Polymarket · Good Day 94% · +6.0 24h

Fed rate cut by...? Polymarket · December Meeting 4% · -2.8 24h