World

Xi Jinping Is Very Likely to Visit the United States Before October

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “Will Xi Jinping visit the United States?”

very likely (90%)
Leading outcome Before Nov 1, 2026 90% Very likely · C
24h move ▼ 7.0 pts Before Nov 1, 2026
Traded 24h $52K $200K all time
Resolves by 2026-11-01

Where the money stands

Before Nov 1, 2026 90% ▼ 7.0
Before Oct 1, 2026 89% ▼ 6.0
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

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Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline Is Likely to Restart by October

likely (86%)

A restored pipeline would reroute oil away from the Strait of Hormuz, easing regional supply pressure — but conviction has swung sharply three times since tracking began, and what is now a likely restart could unravel again quickly.

Updated 12:34 AM ET ▼ drifting down for days
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Hormuz Recovery Is Increasingly a 2028 Story, Not a 2027 One

leaning yes (68%)

The near-term windows have collapsed — normalization by September is effectively off the table, and the 2027 horizon has shed nearly ten points in a day — shifting the weight of expectation toward the back half of the decade. What had been a likely resolution is now only leaning that way, and a market that has crossed conviction rungs six times warns against treating even that as settled.

Updated 2:05 AM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $171K markets read 20 venue Kalshi grade A tracked 50 days range 81% (20d ago) – 43% (28d ago) 6 tier changes
World

WTI Breaking $115 This Year Is Now a Coin Flip

a coin flip (46%)

What had been leaning toward a breakout has pulled back sharply — yet nearby contracts tell a different story: oil hitting $100 this week is priced at 83% and $100 in September at 90%, meaning the market sees a near-term surge without conviction that it carries all the way to historic highs.

Updated 7:42 PM ET ▼ down sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $66K markets read 6 venue Kalshi grade A tracked 49 days range 57% (1d ago) – 23% (42d ago) leaning yes → a coin flip 9 tier changes