U.S.38.5% on track to win

Trump's Approval Rating Is Very Likely Locked at 38.5% for October

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 5, 2026?”

38.5%: very likely (94%)
From our archive This story ran in an earlier edition of the paper. It stays on the record at this address; the front page and sections carry only current stories.
Resolved The money put 38.2% at 29% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome 38.5% 94% Very likely · C virtually impossible → very likely
24h move ▲ 92.0 pts 38.5%
Traded 24h $314K $318K all time
Resolves by 2026-10-05

Where the money stands

38.5% 94% ▲ 92.0
38.4% 5% 0.0
Above 38.5% 3% ▲ 2.0
Below 37.9% 1% ▼ 2.0
37.9% 1% 0.0
38.0% 1% ▼ 6.0
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

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U.S. odds favor Aaron Ford (D)

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Updated 9:23 AM ET ▲ up overnight
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