U.S.

Democrat Melissa Sand Is Virtually Certain to Win Iowa's Governorship by a Wide Margin

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “Iowa Governor margin of victory”

virtually certain (100%)
Leading outcome Sand, 1+ pts 100% Virtually certain · Stable · B venues disagree 95.9pp
24h move 0.0 pts Sand, 1+ pts
Traded 24h $82K $329K all time
Resolves by 2027-11-03

Where the money stands

Sand, 1+ pts 100% 0.0
Sand, 2+ pts 100% 0.1
Sand, 8+ pts 100% ▲ 0.8
Sand, 3+ pts 100% 0.1
Sand, 4+ pts 99% 0.3
Sand, 6+ pts 99% 0.3
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Hegseth and Wiles Are Now Slight Favorites to Survive Through Year-End

probably not (42%)

The administration looks more stable than it did — across the board, departure odds are easing, and what had been a leaning-yes signal on Hegseth is now probably not. Dan Scavino's sharp drop in departure odds reinforces the picture of an inner circle holding together, at least for now.

Updated 7:25 PM ET ▼ down overnight
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a coin flip (46%)

What had been a near-certain Republican runaway is now genuinely uncertain in its spread — the broader Senate picture tells the deeper story: Democrats are sweeping Mississippi, Alaska, Texas, and Michigan, and appear very likely to hold 56 seats, making Louisiana's exact margin a rounding error in a larger Democratic wave.

Updated 8:14 PM ET ▼ down sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $163K markets read 23 venue Kalshi grade B very unlikely → a coin flip venues disagree 90.0pp
U.S.

Alito Will Likely Stay on the Bench Through Mid-2027

unlikely (20%)

What had been a "probably not" has fallen to unlikely after a 19-point collapse from a peak set just 20 days ago — the brief window in which a Trump-era retirement seemed plausible has apparently closed, leaving the Court's composition likely unchanged through the period markets can see.

Updated 2:10 PM ET ▼ down sharply overnight
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traded today $150K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 95 days range 59% (21d ago) – 18% (0d ago) probably not → unlikely 7 tier changes