World

The U.S. Measles Outbreak Is Virtually Certain to Exceed 3,000 Cases This Year

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “Measles cases in 2026?”

Leading outcome Above 3000 97% Near-certain · C
24h move ▲ 2.0 pts Above 3000
Traded 24h $29K $778K all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01

Where the money stands

Above 3000 97% ▲ 2.0
Above 4000 78% ▲ 11.0
Above 6000 25% ▲ 9.0
Above 8000 15% ▲ 5.0
Above 10000 9% ▲ 1.0
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

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Iran's Blockade Ends Well Before Year's End — But the Regime Survives It

A ceasefire holds and the blockade lifts, yet Hormuz traffic remains effectively paralyzed through summer — meaning the economic chokepoint outlasts the formal hostilities. The real story is durability: with a leadership change priced at only one-in-three odds, the Islamic Republic absorbs the military defeat without collapsing.

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Lula Increasingly Favored to Win Brazil's 2026 Election

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A NATO-Russia Military Clash This Year Remains a Tail Risk

The absence of a credible near-term trigger is the real story — money has quietly shifted probability away from earlier windows, suggesting no specific flashpoint is visible on the horizon, even as the longer-dated risk stays stubbornly alive.