U.S.Mike Flood on track to win

Mike Flood Likely Holds NE-01, but His Lead Is Narrowing

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “NE-01 House winner?”

Mike Flood: likely (75%)
Leading outcome Mike Flood 75% Likely · A
24h move ▼ 6.0 pts Mike Flood
Traded 24h $119K $170K all time
Resolves by 2027-11-03
Source markets 8 8 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Mike Flood 75% ▼ 6.0
Chris Backemeyer 25% ▲ 4.0
Austin Ahlman 1% 0.0

Source markets for this story

NC-11 House Election Winner Polymarket · Jamie Ager (D) 84% · -4.0 24h
NC-03 House winner? Kalshi · Greg Murphy 59% · -4.0 24h
TX-15 House winner? Kalshi · Bobby Pulido 88%
NE-01 House winner? Kalshi · Mike Flood 75% · -6.0 24h
VA-05 House winner? Kalshi · John McGuire 59% · +2.0 24h
PA-08 House winner? Kalshi · Paige Cognetti 91% · +4.6 24h
NY-17 House winner? Kalshi · Cait Conley 62% · +2.0 24h
NC-11 House winner? Kalshi · Jamie Ager 85%
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

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U.S. Abdul El-Sayed (D) on track to win

Abdul El-Sayed Likely Wins Michigan's Senate Race in 2026

Abdul El-Sayed (D): likely (75%)

What had been a lean is now a firm Democratic advantage — and the broader Senate picture reinforces it, with Democrats also favored in Texas and Alaska while Republican holds in Kansas and Iowa have softened, pointing to a map that is moving against the GOP.

Updated 4:50 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $541K markets read 28 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 86 days range 74% (36d ago) – 56% (74d ago) resolves in 6 days trending in today's news leaning yes → likely venues agree
U.S. one clear front-runner

Republicans Are Set to Lose Senate Seats — the Majority May Not Hold

≤47: probably not (40%)

Democrats lead in Georgia, Minnesota, Alaska, Texas, and Michigan — enough, in combination, to flip the chamber — and the money now leans toward Republicans finishing with 48 or more seats only narrowly, with a Democratic majority in reach though not yet favored outright.

Updated 11:17 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $270K markets read 21 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 85 days range 44% (6d ago) – 24% (83d ago) resolves in 5 days trending in today's news venues disagree 24.6pp
U.S. wide open

JD Vance Leads a Wide-Open 2028 Presidential Field at a Thin 19%

JD Vance: unlikely (19%)

A plurality this slim is a statement of disorder, not dominance — Vance holds the Republican nomination at roughly even odds but converts that into only a 19% general-election chance, while Marco Rubio's quiet rise and a fractured Democratic field mean 2028 has no front-runner in any meaningful sense.

Updated 8:53 AM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $244K markets read 8 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 92 days range 25% (56d ago) – 18% (0d ago) trending in today's news venues disagree 20.2pp