U.S.John Hart on track to win

John Hart Is Poised to Win the Wairarapa By-Election

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “Greater Wellington Wairarapa by-election winner?”

John Hart: likely (88%)
Leading outcome John Hart 88% Likely · C
24h move 0.0 pts John Hart
Traded 24h $30K $30K all time
Resolves by 2027-08-21

Where the money stands

John Hart 88% 0.0
Colin Olds 5% 0.0
Alistair Plimmer 2% 0.0
Michael Birch 1% 0.0
Amber Craig 1% 0.0
Jill Greathead 1% 0.0
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

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Scott Jennings: a coin flip (49%)

Alina Habba's collapse from front-runner to also-ran in a single session suggests a concrete signal from inside the White House, not just sentiment drift — but with Jennings still below 50% and an announcement likely slipping past September, this remains genuinely unresolved.

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Democrats Are Likely Headed for a House Majority in the 2026 Midterms

230-233: unlikely (13%)

While coverage obsesses over Senate battlegrounds, the House picture is already resolving — an 85% probability of Democratic control dwarfs the uncertainty in any individual race, and a full sweep of both chambers is now nearly a coin flip.

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U.S. Roy Cooper on track to win

Roy Cooper Is Likely Headed to the Senate

Roy Cooper: very likely (92%)

North Carolina's governorship record translates cleanly into Senate capital — Cooper's dominance there, alongside Florida's near-certain Republican hold and Texas genuinely in play, sketches a map where Democrats have one clear pickup and Republicans one unexpected vulnerability.

Updated 2:05 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
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