U.S.

A Government Shutdown Is Virtually Certain to Be Averted Before September

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “When will government-wide funding become law?”

virtually certain (99%)
Resolved The money put Before Sep 11, 2026 at 99% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome Before Sep 11, 2026 99% Virtually certain · C · tracked 47 days likely → virtually certain
24h move ▲ 14.0 pts Before Sep 11, 2026
Traded 24h $41K $65K all time
Resolves by 2026-12-01

Where the money stands

Before Sep 11, 2026 99% ▲ 14.0
Before Sep 18, 2026 99% ▲ 8.0
Before Sep 26, 2026 99% ▲ 2.0
Before Oct 1, 2026 99% ▲ 8.0
Before Oct 9, 2026 99% ▲ 1.0
Before Oct 16, 2026 99% 0.0
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

More from U.S.

U.S. one clear front-runner

Democrats Are Increasingly Favored to Sweep Congress in the Midterms

Above 52: probably not (36%)

While coverage focuses on individual Senate battlegrounds, the fuller picture is a coordinated Democratic wave: a House flip is very likely, Senate control leans Democratic, and Texas — both its House seat and its Senate race — is tilting blue. The Senate seat-count outcome above 52 remains the soft underbelly of that thesis.

Updated 12:47 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $65K markets read 27 venue Kalshi grade B tracked 68 days range 37% (10d ago) – 20% (63d ago) trending in today's news venues disagree 26.5pp
U.S. wide open

Republicans Likely Lose the Senate in 2026, With Texas the Decisive Battleground

48: unlikely (18%)

What had been a long-shot Democratic Senate takeover is now the clear directional bet — Texas, where Democrats are favored at 61-62%, is the linchpin; if it flips, the map for a Republican majority collapses entirely.

Updated 5:58 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $124K venue Kalshi grade C tracked 68 days range 22% (55d ago) – 15% (1d ago) trending in today's news
U.S. wide open

The 2028 Democratic Nomination Race Has No Clear Front-Runner

Gavin Newsom: unlikely (14%)

With Newsom, Ocasio-Cortez, and Ossoff each sitting around 14%, the Democratic Party faces the most wide-open nominating contest in a generation — and on the Republican side, Vance's path to the nomination remains contested enough that the general election is anyone's game.

Updated 1:20 AM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $877K markets read 6 venue Kalshi grade A tracked 81 days venues disagree 28.1pp