U.S.

A Government Shutdown Is Virtually Certain to Be Averted Before September

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “When will government-wide funding become law?”

virtually certain (99%)
Leading outcome Before Sep 11, 2026 99% Virtually certain · C
24h move ▲ 14.0 pts Before Sep 11, 2026
Traded 24h $42K $65K all time
Resolves by 2026-12-01

Where the money stands

Before Sep 11, 2026 99% ▲ 14.0
Before Sep 18, 2026 99% ▲ 10.0
Before Sep 26, 2026 99% ▲ 2.0
Before Oct 16, 2026 99% 0.0
Before Oct 2, 2026 98% 0.0
Before Oct 9, 2026 98% 0.0
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U.S.

Democrats Are Likely to Win the House, but the Margin Stays Murky

218+ Democratic seats: likely (86%)

A full Democratic sweep of both chambers is now a coin-flip, with Senate control the decisive variable — Texas alone could decide whether a Democratic House majority has any partner to govern with.

Updated 12:05 PM ET ▲ drifting up for days
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U.S. Democratic Party on track to win

Democrats Are Likely to Retake the House — but the Senate Stays Republican

Democratic Party: likely (85%)

A split Congress is the most probable outcome of the midterms, meaning legislative gridlock rather than a Democratic governing trifecta — the House flip, if it comes, changes the oversight landscape far more than the policy one.

Updated 10:45 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
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traded today $94K venue Kalshi grade C trending in today's news
U.S. wide open

JD Vance Leads a Wide-Open 2028 Presidential Field at Just 21%

JD Vance: unlikely (21%)

A sitting vice president holding a plurality this thin, with the Republican nomination itself only a coin-flip proposition, signals genuine uncertainty about the post-Trump succession — the 2028 race is anyone's to claim on both sides.

Updated 9:08 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
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traded today $1.5M markets read 6 venue Polymarket grade A