U.S.56 on track to win

Democrats Are Very Likely to Flip the Senate and Hold 56 Seats

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes)”

56: likely (89%)
Resolved The money put 56 at 90% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome 56 89% Likely · Falling · A · tracked 28 days peak 88% · low 30% (1d ago) very likely → likely 3 tier changes over tracking period venues disagree 4.0pp
24h move ▲ 1.0 pts 56
Traded 24h $909K $7.6M all time
Resolves by 2027-02-01
Source markets 25 25 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

56 89% ▲ 1.0
55 8% ▼ 2.8
57 4% 0.1
54 0% ▼ 1.5
Below 53 0% 0.0
53 0% 0.0

Source markets for this story

Alaska Senate winner? Kalshi · Democratic party 95% · +1.8 24h
Mississippi Senate winner? Kalshi · Scott Colom 97% · +4.6 24h
Florida Senate margin of victory Kalshi · Moody, 1+ pts 99%
Alaska Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Mary Peltola (D) 96% · +3.0 24h
Michigan Senate margin of victory Kalshi · El-Sayed, 1+ pts 100%
Texas Senate margin of victory Kalshi · James Talarico, 5.5+ pts 100%
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes) Kalshi · 56 89% · +1.0 24h
Mississippi Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Scott Colom (D) 97% · +3.5 24h
Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map) Polymarket · None 97% · +3.5 24h
Alaska Senate winner? (Person) Kalshi · Mary Peltola 95% · +1.2 24h
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) Kalshi · Democrats, 12 to 14% 64% · +5.0 24h
How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · Below 45 92% · +2.0 24h
Georgia Senate margin of victory Kalshi · Ossoff, 2+ pts 100%
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the 2026 election? (Directional) Kalshi · At least 46 99%
North Carolina Senate margin of victory Kalshi · Cooper, 1+ pts 100%
Louisiana Senate margin of victory Kalshi · Letlow, 1+ pts 46% · -50.0 24h
Republican Senate seats after the midterms (Lower Brackets) Polymarket · 44 95% · +5.2 24h
Arkansas Senate margin of victory Kalshi · Cotton, 2+ pts 100% · +0.7 24h
Closest Senate race in 2026? Kalshi · Mississippi 91% · -2.0 24h
Maine Senate margin of victory Kalshi · Jackson, 1+ pts 100%
South Carolina Senate margin of victory Kalshi · Andrews, 1+ pts 100%
Minnesota Senate margin of victory Kalshi · Flanagan, 3+ pts 100%
Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory Polymarket · Talarico 12%+ 97% · +2.8 24h
2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory Polymarket · Democrats 12-14% 68% · +6.1 24h
Next Senate Majority Leader? Polymarket · Chuck Schumer 86% · -2.0 24h
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

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